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The US 10 year Treasury note yield was up 2 basis points

Highlights: 

Market Recap:  The VIX finished the day up 2.19% as equity markets fell.  The US 10 year Treasury note yield was up 2 basis points, finishing the day at 2.41%.  The S&P 500 finished the day down -0.67% for the day. West Texas Crude Oil was up 0.46% and the US Dollar was flat for the day.

Economic Data: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index dropped to -0.45 for the month of April.  This is weaker than expected and serves sign of continued deceleration in economic activity.

FED

Sectors Performance relative to the S&P 500:  Utilities, real estate, and staples are the top performing sectors over the last 12 months.  They are up 19.58%, 18.58%, and 15.06% versus the S&P 500 over the last year. Energy, materials, and financials are the weakest sectors.  They are down -20.49%, -12.86%, and -6.46% versus the S&P 500 over the last 12 months.

SP500

Utilities: Utilities have rallied recently against the S&P 500 (SPY).  The ratio remains above the 200 day moving average and has broke back above key resistance.  If utilities break out to the upside relative to the broad market, this would imply upside in volatility.

XLU

Energy: Energy is the worst performing sector relative to the broad market over the last year.  The ratio remains below the 200 day moving average and continues to demonstrate low inflation expectations going forward.

XLE

Real Estate: The real estate sector has rallied recently against the broad market and tested support.  It failed at support yesterday. A breakout to the upside would imply further downside in rates and continued strength in the real estate sector.  A break down would suggest weakness in REITs.

XLRE

Futures Summary: 

DJIA

News from Bloomberg:

China accused the U.S. of undermining more than a year of talks after it blacklisted Huawei. U.S. tactics are wrong and will elicit "a necessary response," Ambassador to the EU Zhang Ming said. China has "unwavering resolve" and the government won't sit idly by. He cited unity with Europe and other regions in defending global trade and said the U.S. is isolated.  

The Commerce Department granted a 90-day relief for some American companies relying on Huawei equipment, giving them time to make alternative arrangements and maintain rural services. Huawei itself is focusing on China and eastern Europe, CEO Ren Zhengfei said. It's also preparing to launch its own operating system to rival Android, the FT reported.  

Home Depot reported comparable sales that missed estimates due in part to unfavorable February weather and deflation in lumber prices. Comparable sales rose 2.5% versus the 4.3% estimate. First-quarter EPS beat. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance on momentum from strategic initiatives and the current economic and housing backdrop.

Boeing's 737 Max may stay grounded in Indonesia until next year. The country will review any fixes and pilots will have to undergo more stringent training, Civil Aviation chief Polana Pramesti said, declining to predict if the Boeing aircraft will be retained. Two of Indonesia's carriers are among its biggest customers, and Lion Air Flight 610 was the first Max to crash.

Nasdaq futures pointed to a rebound as tech companies rallied globally after the U.S. relief for Huawei customers. The dollar rallied and Treasuries were steady. Samsung rose on speculation it'll benefit from Huawei's woes. The Shanghai benchmark bucked losses for Asian markets as rare-earths companies rallied. Gold fell. The yen and oil were little changed. Most industrial metals climbed.

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More from Clint Sorenson, CFA, CMT
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