Gold moved higher on trade concerns, and US rate expectations but has blasted through the critical 1350 level. With Geopolitical risk premium ratcheting higher on the back of Middle East tension and autonomy protest in Hong Kong, gold represents dependable insurance against those mounting geopolitical risk. Lots of headline risk to navigate through this weekend and beyond. Today's price action suggests the market is not long enough gold, especially by historical standards, for this elevated level risk as investors have remained far too complacent to mounting risk in Hong Kong and the smoulder explosive political powder keg in the Middle East.
In this environment, gold will remain super reactive to both headline risk and global recessionary waxing, so any negative will trigger another wave of buying. Buckle up !!
Focus remains on oil markets
Oil prices have stayed bid during the Asia session. After yesterday's geopolitically induced oil spike; oil bears have gone into temporary hibernation as potential weekend news flow risk remains elevated.
The bearish narrative hasn't changed, the massive US inventory build in a wobbly economic climate hardly supports a bullish story. And that not even factoring in an escalation of US tariffs. So while I expect the downside to open next week, the set up is not great to run short into the weekend given probability of more animated and aggressive posturing from the US administration Iran hawks.
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