US Dollar: Sept USD is Down at 97.665.

Energies: Oct '19 Crude is Down at 54.76.

Financials: The Dec 30 year bond is Down 9 ticks and trading at 159.17.

Indices: The Sept S&P 500 emini ES contract is 20 ticks Higher and trading at 3016.75.

Gold: The Dec Gold contract is trading Up at 1511.60. Gold is 43 ticks Higher than its close.

 

Initial Conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The dollar is Down- and Crude is Down- which is not normal and the 30 year Bond is trading Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Lower which is correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is correlated with the US dollar trading Down.   I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.

All of Asia is trading Higher.  Currently all of Europe is trading Higher with the exception of the London exchange which is Lower.  

 

Possible Challenges To Traders Today

  • Retail Sales is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is major.

  • Core Retail Sales is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is major.

  • Import Prices m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is major.

  • Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment is out at 10 AM EST.  This is major.

  • Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations is out at 10 AM EST.  This is major.

  • Business Inventories m/m is out at 10 AM EST.  This is major.

 

Treasuries

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 30 year bond (ZB) and The YM futures contract.  The YM contract is the DJIA and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZB made a major move at around 8 AM EST.  The ZB hit a High at around that time and the YM hit a Low.  If you look at the charts below ZB gave a signal at around 8 AM EST and the YM was moving Higher at the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. ZB hit a High at around 8 AM and the YM was moving Higher at the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of MultiCharts and I've changed the timeframe to a 15 minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 30 year bond, as a trader you could have netted about 30 plus ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $31.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZB is now December.  The YM contract remains at September, 2019 (for the time being) and I've changed the format to Renko bars such that it may be more apparent and visible.

 

Charts Courtesy of MultiCharts built on an AMP platform.

fxsoriginal

fxsoriginal

 

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets an Upside bias and the markets didn't disappoint.  The Dow closed Higher by 45 points and the other indices traded Higher as well.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the Upside.

Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market. 

 

Commentary

Yesterday we gave the markets an Upside bias as our rules of Market Correlation told us so.  The USD and Crude were both trading Lower yesterday morning and this typically favors an Upside day.  Today we have Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales and UOM numbers on both sentiment and inflation.  These are all major and proven market movers.  The inflation numbers are all tame and this should lead us to believe that the Fed will reduce rates but as in all things only time will tell.

Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. The following Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disclaimer should be noted.

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results.

There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Trading in the commodities markets involves substantial risk and YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY, and thus is not appropriate for everyone. You should carefully consider your financial condition before trading in these markets, and only risk capital should be used.

In addition, these markets are often liquid, making it difficult to execute orders at desired prices. Also, during periods of extreme volatility, trading in these markets may be halted due to so-called “circuit breakers” put in place by the CME to alleviate such volatility. In the event of a trading halt, it may be difficult or impossible to exit a losing position.

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