Brexit does not threaten financial stability in the Euro area

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

UK general election polls 2017: Labour are continuing to narrow the gap on the Conservatives. The latest poll from YouGov has the Tory lead at just four points over Labour. Bulgarians have a new government. The Bulgarian parliament expressed confidence in the pro-Western centre-right government of the party Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria. The head of the party Boyko Borisov will thus become Bulgaria‘s prime minister for the third time in the past eight years.

Brexit does not threaten the financial stability of the euro area. The departure of Britain from the EU should not pose a significant risk to the financial stability of the eurozone. The European Central Bank stated this in its half-yearly report on financial stability.

Although the Greek parliament has undergone the required reforms, Athens is still waiting for the next part of financial assistance. The finance ministers of the eurozone Member States have failed to agree on releasing money for heavily indebted Greece. Similarly discussions on debt relief have ended. Greece badly needs money from the loan by July when it is due to make a debt repayment of 7.3 billion euros. Without this the country could become insolvent.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects to continue to increase its activities in Greece and to invest 2 billion euros by 2018. So far, EBRD has spent more than one billion euros in Greece to help the country with economic recovery. Through its engagement in Greece, EBRD wants to attract private sector investment and help small and medium-sized businesses obtain access to finance. Access to credit in Greece is very difficult, which can become a major obstacle to growth.

Real gross domestic product in the Central and Eastern European region (CEE) will grow in 2017. According to an International Monetary Fund report, it should amount to 3.2%. In 2016 it was 2.7%. The reasons the IMF gives are global economic activity which is supporting demand for exports, and increasing investment flowing to EU Member States in this region from European subsidy funds.

Warsaw Stock Exchange will seek to attract companies from nearby countries. The Warsaw Stock Exchange will focus in the future on acquiring foreign firms, especially from neighboring countries including the Czech Republic. This year the largest stock exchange in CEE will significantly revive its activity and should record a record amount of primary stock offerings, acting head of the stock exchange Jarosław Grzywinski said.

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Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

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