|

The euphoric dragon boat ride has taken a sharp u-turn

After what was hyped as the "mother of all catch-up bounces," China’s markets rally has hit a wall, leaving investors deflated. The reopening surge from the week-long holiday barely had time to gather steam before fizzling out, and now the once-thrilled bulls are licking their wounds. With fresh stimulus nowhere in sight, the rally has stalled, and the euphoric "Dragon Boat" ride has taken a sharp U-turn.

Tuesday’s press briefing from China’s top economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, was supposed to be the big moment, the one where Beijing unleashed a stimulus bazooka. Instead, it was more of a pop gun. While officials paid lip service to hitting their economic targets and promised vague "further support," there was no meaningful policy boost. The market reaction? Immediate disappointment. Hong Kong stocks tumbled from boom to bust in a heartbeat, leaving traders scrambling to figure out what’s next.

It’s clear the market wanted more, and Beijing’s reluctance to roll out a bigger package is raising serious doubts about the sustainability of this rally. With global risk appetite already on shaky ground, China’s lack of decisive action could be the pin that bursts the bubble. A historic moment may be looming for Chinese equities, but instead of the rocket fuel investors were hoping for, all they're getting is the market equivalent of a flat, day-old soda. Traders are watching closely, but without a serious commitment from policymakers, this rally may have already peaked.

Author

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

SPI Asset Management

With more than 25 years of experience, Stephen has a deep-seated knowledge of G10 and Asian currency markets as well as precious metal and oil markets.

More from Stephen Innes
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD remains below 1.1750 ahead of ECB policy decision

EUR/USD remains on the back foot below 1.1750 in the European session on Thursday. Traders move to the sidelines and refrain from placing any fresh directional bets on the pair ahead of the ECB policy announcements and the US CPI inflation data. 

GBP/USD stays defensive below 1.3400, awaits BoE and US CPI

GBP/USD oscillates in a narrow band below 1.3400 in European trading on Thursday. The pair trades with caution as markets eagerly await the BoE policy verdict and US consumer inflation data for fresh directional impetus. 

Gold holds losses below $4,350 ahead of US CPI report

Gold struggles to capitalize on the previous day's move higher and holds its pullback below $4,350 in the European session on Thursday. The downtick could be attributed to some profit-taking amid a US Dollar bounce. All eyes now remain on the US CPI inflation data. 

BoE set to resume easing cycle, trimming interest rate to 3.75%

The Bank of England will announce its last monetary policy decision of 2025 on Thursday at 12:00 GMT. The market prices a 25-basis-point rate cut, which would leave the BoE’s Bank Rate at 3.75%.

US CPI data expected to show inflation rose slightly to 3.1%, cooling Fed rate cut bets for January

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. The CPI inflation in the US is expected to rise at an annual rate of 3.1% in November

Dogecoin Price Forecast: DOGE breaks key support amid declining investor confidence

Dogecoin (DOGE) trades in the red on Thursday, following a 4% decline on the previous day. The DOGE supply in profit declines as large wallet investors trim their portfolios. Derivatives data shows a surge in bearish positions amid declining retail interest.