This is not a correlated market. The dollar is Up+ and Crude is Down- which is normal and the 30 year Bond is trading Higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.

All of Asia is trading Lower at this time. Currently all of Europe is trading Lower as well.

Possible Challenges To Traders Today:

Philly Fed MFG Index is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Unemployment Claims are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Building Permits are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Housing Starts are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST. This is Major.

Treasuries

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 30 year bond (ZB) and The S&P futures contract. The S&P contract is the Standard and Poor's and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZB made it's move at around 9:30 AM EST. The ZB hit a High at around that time and the S&P moved Higher. If you look at the charts below ZB gave a signal at around 9:30 AM EST and the S&P moved Higher at around the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. ZB hit a High at around 9:30 AM EST and the S&P was moving Higher shortly thereafter. These charts represent the newest version of MultiCharts and I've changed the timeframe to a 15 minute chart to display better. This represented a Shorting opportunity on the 30 year bond, as a trader you could have netted about 30 ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $31.25. Please note: the front month for the ZB is now Dec '20. The S&P contract remains at Sept '20. I've changed the format to Renko bars such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts Courtesy of MultiCharts built on an AMP platform

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral bias as it was FOMC Day and we always maintain a Neutral bias on that day. The Dow closed 37 points Higher however the S&P and Nasdaq closed Lower. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the Downside.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Well just as we suspected, the Federal Reserve didn't raise interest rates and instead suggested that rates would be at the current level for an extended period of time; going to the end of 2023. Additionally it was suggested that the Federal Reserve is apt to develop a set of criteria that would solidify the need to hike interest rates. This is highly unusual as the Fed is more willing to use criteria to answer why to lower. But as in all things only time will tell how this works...

Author

Nick Mastrandrea

Market Tea Leaves

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.