Fed wants to see more tame inflation numbers prior to making any commitment on rate cuts

USD: Mar '24 is Up at 103.150.

Energies: Apr '24 Crude is Down at 80.97.

Financials: The June '24 30 Year T-Bond is Up 20 ticks and trading at 119.14.

Indices: The Mar '24 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 77 ticks Higher and trading at 5306.00.

Gold: The Apr'24 Gold contract is trading Up at 2208.40.  

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The USD is Up and Crude is Down which is normal, and the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Lower which is correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Up.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.  Asia is trading Higher with the exception of the Shanghai exchange which is Lower.  Currently all of Europe is trading Higher except the Paris exchange.  

Possible challenges to traders

• Unemployment Claims is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is Major.

• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is Major.

• Current Account is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is Major.

• Flash Manufacturing PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST.  This is Major.

• Flash Services PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST.  This is Major.

• Existing Home Sales is out at 10 AM EST.  This is Major.

• CB Leading Index m/m is out at 10 AM EST.  This is Major.

• Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST.  This is Major.

• FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 12 noon.  This is Major.

Treasuries

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 30 year (ZB) to the 10 year (ZN).  They work exactly the same.  

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 10-year bond (ZN) and the S&P futures contract.  The S&P contract is the Standard and Poor's, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.  

Yesterday the ZN migrated Lower at around 2 PM EST as the S&P hit a Low at around the same time. If you look at the charts below the S&P gave a signal at around 2 PM and the ZN started its Downward slide.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. S&P hit a Low at around 2 PM and migrated Higher.  These charts represent the newest version of MultiCharts and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better. This represented a Short opportunity on the 10-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 25 ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $15.625. Please note: the front month for both the ZN and the S&P are now Jun '24.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.  

Charts courtesy of MultiCharts built on an AMP platform 

ZN -Jun 2024 - 03/20/24

S&P - Mar 2024 - 03/20/24

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral bias as it was FOMC Day, and we always maintain a Neutral bias on that day.  The indices made their move at 2 PM EST at the same time the Federal Reserve made their announcement.  The Dow gained 401 points and the other indices gained ground as well.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is Neutral or Mixed.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market. 

Commentary

Well, another FOMC Day has come and gone and just as we suggested the Federal Reserve didn't change anything as it relates to interest rates.  They did however maintain their rate cut forecast for 2024 and served to drive the markets Higher, much Higher than expected.  The Dow gained just over 400 points on the session; the Nasdaq eked out a gain of just over 200 points.  The Fed has committed to 3 rate cuts this year, but no one knows when during the year it will occur.  Our take is the Fed wants to see more tame inflation numbers prior to making any commitment on rate cuts.  Today we have about 9 economic reports, all of which are major.  Will the markets continue its upward climb?  Only time will tell...