The commodities feed: OPEC leaves demand outlook unchanged

ING Global Economics Team ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The oil market was seen trading marginally lower in the early Tuesday trading session as OPEC expects supply increases to ease deficit projections. Precious metals edged higher yesterday, with spot gold reaching yet another record high, driven by US-China trade uncertainty and continued ETF inflows.

Energy - OPEC sees smaller oil supply deficit in 2026

Oil prices are trading almost flat this morning, with the market focused on Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting. OPEC's expectations of increasing output to ease a supply shortfall next year further weighed on prices.

In its monthly oil market report, OPEC left its global oil demand growth forecasts largely unchanged at 1.3m b/d and 1.4m b/d for this year and 2026, respectively. Similarly, the group also maintained its supply projections and expects those from producers outside the wider OPEC+ alliance to rise by 810k b/d this year and 630k b/d in 2026. However, the organisation has modified its expectations for the global oil market balance and now anticipates that supply will closely match demand next year, primarily due to rising OPEC+ production.

The release also shows that OPEC increased supply by 540k b/d month on month to 28.4m b/d in September. Most of the members churned out higher output over the month, led by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Iran and Venezuela. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its monthly oil market report later today.

In the European natural gas market, the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) extended declines for a fourth consecutive session with futures settling below EUR31.5/MWh yesterday, largely on improved supply and stable inventories. Recent reports suggest that imports of liquefied natural gas to both the UK and Europe have increased since the start of the heating season, with exports from the US hovering close to an all-time high. EU gas storage continues to tick higher and is now about 83% full, after emerging nearly depleted from the last heating season.

Metals - Gold and Silver rally to more record highs

Gold rose to a new all-time high with spot prices reaching intraday highs of $4,164/oz in the early trading session today, following strong inflows reported in exchange-traded funds, escalating US-China trade tensions and traders’ confidence that the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts will continue. Spot silver also extended the upward rally for a fifth consecutive session with prices hitting record highs above $53/oz, fuelled by a historic short squeeze in London.

In ETF holdings, recent data shows that gold ETFs continue to increase with total known holdings witnessing inflows of 8.5koz for a second consecutive session to 97.5moz as of yesterday. Net inflows for last week now stand at 240koz, taking the total gold ETF holdings to the highest since 28 September 2022.

Gold and silver are two of the best-performing commodities this year, with prices up by more than 55% and 80% YTD, respectively, supported by the Fed’s policy easing, the central bank’s purchases and geopolitical tensions, which have fuelled demand for safe-haven assets.

In nickel, recent LME data shows that on-warrant inventories rose by 5,412 tonnes (the biggest daily addition since 16 June 2025) for a fourth consecutive session to 235,896 tonnes as of yesterday, the highest since March 2018. Most of the inflows were reported into Singapore and South Korean warehouses. Total inventories of nickel rose by 4,716 tonnes for a fourth straight session to 242,094 tonnes (the highest since 4 June 2021), while cancelled warrants declined by 696 tonnes for a third consecutive session to 6,198 tonnes (the lowest level since 23 July 2024) as of yesterday.

Agriculture - Cocoa prices continue to fall

Cocoa prices extended losses for a fifth consecutive session yesterday, on prospects of an improving crop outlook in West Africa for next season. Cocoa futures trading in New York is already down by around 14% this month. Recent reports suggest that the weather has become favourable in some regions, notably the Ivory Coast and Ghana, with decent rains and proper sunshine helping cocoa plants to flower and develop new pods.

Bloomberg estimates showed that the cocoa market is set to remain in a surplus of 186kt in the 2025/26 season, more than double the surplus expected for the current season. Cocoa bean processing has declined over the last three quarters in Asia, Europe, and North America, and is widely expected to drop further in the upcoming quarterly reports this week.

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ING Global Economics Team

ING Economic and Financial Analysis

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