The commodities feed: Natural Gas under pressure

Henry Hub natural gas extended declines in the early trading session today following higher US natural gas inventory injections over the last week. Total gas stockpiles continue to float above the five-year average, weighing on sentiment.

Energy – US natural gas storage builds further

EIA weekly gas storage data shows that US gas inventory rose by 80Bcf last week, higher than the average market expectations of a build of around 77Bcf. However, this is below the five-year average addition of 94Bcf for this time of year. Total gas stockpiles totalled 3.64Tcf as of 3 October, which is 4.5% above the five-year average. Meanwhile, US natural gas fell for a third consecutive session with Henry Hub futures trading around $3.24/MMBtu today, the lowest in more than a week.

The latest data from Insights Global show that refined product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region increased by 29kt WoW to 5.98mt for the week ending 9 October 2025. The increase was largely driven by gasoil and naphtha inventories rising by 42kt and 87kt to 2.25mt and 542kt, respectively. However, gasoline stocks fell by 32kt to 1.2mt, while fuel oil inventories declined by 19kt to 926kt over the reporting week. European gasoline demand in some key markets has been fairly robust for much of this year, contributing to lower stocks.

Meanwhile, in Singapore, refined product inventories fell by 2.5k barrels WoW to 45.2m barrels in the week ending 8 October 2025. The fall was driven by light distillates and residuals, which declined by 1.9m barrels and 892k barrels to 11.5m barrels and 23.7m barrels, respectively. However, middle distillate stocks rose marginally by 263k barrels to 10m barrels.

Metals – Silver rallies to fresh record highs

Spot silver rose for a second consecutive session to fresh record highs yesterday, amid soaring safe-haven asset demand and intensified supply shortages in the London bullion market. There are suggestions that a lack of readily available silver in London is driving prices up, largely due to fears of potential US tariffs that have triggered a rush to ship silver across the Atlantic. Meanwhile, recent data shows that silver ETFs continue to increase with total known holdings witnessing inflows of 621.7koz for a third consecutive session to 822.6moz as of yesterday. Earlier estimates from the Silver Institute indicated a fifth consecutive year of supply deficit for the metal this year. Silver has gained more than 73% so far this year, supported by growing demand for safe-haven assets amid fiscal concerns, overheated equity markets, and threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence.

LME copper prices settled almost 2% higher, with prices touching $11,000/t at one point yesterday, after Chinese traders returned from the holiday break in a bullish mood amid ongoing supply disruptions. Recent reports of production disruptions at major mines, including Tech Resources (Quebrada Blanca mine), Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (Grasberg mine), Codelco (EI Teniente) and Hudbay Minerals Inc. – have led to a sharp downward revision in the output guidance for the year. Additionally, expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year have further supported copper prices.

Recent reports suggest that Codelco produced just 93.4kt (the lowest monthly output since 2003) of copper in August, down 25% compared to 125.3kt produced during the same period last year. The drop was largely due to a deadly collapse at its EI Teniente mine, which disrupted operations and derailed recovery efforts from a prolonged production slump. It is estimated that the company reported losses of 33kt of copper due to the incident, while also trimming its 2025 output guidance. Meanwhile, output at the Collahuasi mine (jointly owned by Anglo-American and Glencore) fell by 27.5% YoY to 35.4kt for the period mentioned above, impacted by a period of lower-grade ore.

Agriculture – Argentina corn plantations progressing well

In its weekly report, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange shows that Argentina’s corn plantings were reported to be 25.6% complete as of 9 October, up from 19.8% a week ago. Meanwhile, the exchange reported that corn planting area estimates remain unchanged at 7.8m hectares (second-largest corn planting area) for the 2025/26 season, marking a nearly 10% increase compared to the previous season. This expansion is primarily driven by a combination of favourable weather conditions and economic policy shifts.

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