The commodities feed: European Gas moves higher

Natural gas prices in Europe reported their biggest daily gain since mid-June amid supply risks and favourable weather forecasts. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia left the price of its main crude oil grade for Asia unchanged, while trimming it for buyers in the US and Europe.

Energy – Saudi leaves official selling prices unchanged for Asian buyers

ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI continued their upward rally in the early trading session today amid persistent risks to Russian oil supplies and a moderate output hike by OPEC+. Meanwhile, the Brent prompt timespread strengthened slightly and traded in a backwardation of $0.42/bbl this morning, compared to $0.37/bbl at the end of last week.

The Saudis released their latest official selling prices (OSPs) for November loadings. It shows that the premium for their flagship Arab Light crude into Asia was left unchanged at US$2.20/bbl over the benchmark. The decision comes after OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 137k b/d in November, and it also contrasts with the average market expectations of an increase of US$0.30/bbl. OSPs for all grades into the US and Europe were reduced by US$0.50/bbl and US$1.20/bbl respectively, reflecting expectations of slower demand.

European natural gas prices ended higher with TTF futures rising by 5.3% to settle above EUR33/MWh yesterday. Prices remain supported amid persistent risks to supplies, along with expectations of colder weather conditions driving up demand. Recent reports suggest that Russia has intensified air strikes across Ukraine, further damaging gas infrastructure.

Meanwhile, recent weather forecasts suggest colder-than-normal temperatures in the coming months, which might slow down the fuel injections, as the region braces for the start of the heating season. Meanwhile, EU storage is now almost 83% full, down from 94.4% at the same time last year and below the five-year average of 90.4%.

Metals – China keeps adding Gold to its reserves

China’s central bank continued to add gold to its reserves for an 11th consecutive month in September. The People’s Bank of China added 40,000 troy ounces (1.24 tonnes) of gold to its reserves, taking the total to 74.06 million troy ounces (2,303.5 tonnes). China has purchased a total of 1.26m troy ounces (39.2 tonnes) since restarting its purchases in November 2024, as the People’s Bank of China continues to boost its gold reserves amid geopolitical uncertainties.

Meanwhile, recent data from the World Gold Council shows that overall central bank net purchases stood at 15 tonnes in August. Despite a recent pause in buying, the National Bank of Poland remains the top gold buyer in 2025 so far, adding 67 tonnes of gold to its reserves.

Gold remains supported with spot prices approaching US$4,000/oz yesterday following mounting uncertainty about a US shutdown and political turmoil in France. In the second week of the ongoing US government shutdown, access to key economic data has been cut off, leaving investors and the Federal Reserve in the dark about changing conditions. Despite the uncertainty, traders still expect a quarter-point rate cut this month.

Meanwhile, political shakeups in France and Japan are fuelling fiscal concerns, and a surge in demand from both retail investors and institutional inflows in Europe and Japan – supporting the gold price rally. Gold is already up more than 50% year-to-date, driven by US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade and geopolitical moves, which sparked a flight to safety and a shift away from the dollar. Strong central bank buying, continued ETF inflows and expectations of a further Fed rate cut have added fuel to the rally.

Agriculture – Global coffee exports fall

Recent numbers from the International Coffee Organisation (ICO) show that global coffee exports stood at 11.4m bags in August 2025, down 3.7% YoY compared to 11.8m bags reported a year ago. This includes Arabica exports of 6.6m bags (down 9.7% YoY) and Robusta exports of 4.8m bags (up 5.9% YoY). Meanwhile, cumulative exports increased slightly by 0.2% YoY to 127.9m bags from October 2024 to August 2025.

The latest data from the Indian Agriculture Ministry show that total domestic crop plantations so far this season increased to 112.2m hectares as of 3 October, up from 111.5m hectares from the same period last year. The increase was driven by corn and sugarcane, with plantations rising by 10.7% YoY and 3.3% YoY to 9.5m hectares and 5.9m hectares for the period mentioned above, respectively. This was largely driven by the favourable weather conditions in the key growing regions.

Weekly export inspection data from the USDA for the week ending 2 October shows that US corn and soybean shipments rose while wheat exports slowed over the last week. US weekly inspection of corn for export stood at 1,600kt, up from 1,539.3kt in the previous week and 948.2kt reported a year ago. Similarly, US soybean export inspections stood at 768kt over the week, higher than 610.6kt in the previous week but much lower than the 1,625.6kt reported a year ago. Meanwhile, US wheat export inspections stood at 505kt, compared to 873.6kt a week ago and 364.8kt for the same period last year.

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