The Band's Coming To Town, Man!

  • Currencies drift again but this time higher!

  • China releases their "official Gold Holdings"... Chuck calls B.S.! 

Good Day.... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I guess this is becoming the norm, the later in the morning Pfennig, that is... I'm finding that dealing with chemo, and waking up early just doesn't mix well... The doctor came through for me yesterday, and my plantar fasciitis has backed off from the acute pain this morning, a couple more days and I think I'll be ready to run a marathon! HAHAHAHAHAHA! As if! My beloved Cardinals saw their collective bats come alive last night, and won big. Unfortunately, their history shows that a big scoring game is usually followed by a shutout or something like that. UGH! Day game at Busch today, but I'm not there, sorry Duane! Ambrosia greets me this morning with their song: How Much I Feel... 

Well, another day, another drifting in the currencies, and metals... Yesterday's drifting though was a bit different than the recent drifts, in that the currencies leaned toward an uptick VS the dollar... The euro is trading in the same clothes as yesterday, and I don't see much movement from the Big Dog, until we see the color of the ECB's (European Central Bank) words after they meet tomorrow. 

The markets are holding their breath waiting for any words that would give them a clue as to when rates are going to rise in the Eurozone... Unfortunately, I just don't see the ECB and their President, Mario Draghi, saying anything that would help the euro... And basically he'll have the data on his side this time, as the Trade War has begun to take a pound of flesh from Eurozone economic growth. 

I wrote in yesterday's Pfennig that I blame the currencies sliding on the ECB's unwillingness to begin the removal of their stimulus monetary policies, and I stick by that statement... For no little dogs (the other currencies) can run unless the Big Dog runs first... 

The Russian ruble has seen a major slide in recent weeks, as it has to deal with the 1. economic sanctions, 2. a drifting lower of the price of Oil, and 3. a route of the Emerging Markets currencies. But after sliding to a greater than 70 figure on Monday, Tuesday saw the ruble bounce back below 70, when the most recent data for Oil supplies showed a huge drop, and the price of Oil rebounded more than a buck on the day. 

Yesterday, the Russian Economic Development Minister Maksim Oreshkin, said in an interview that "that now is a good time to buy the undervalued ruble, and that, You know the famous quote from Warren Buffett: 'Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.' When everything is good and everyone is bullish about something, it means, on the contrary, that this asset has little prospects.?"

What he's saying here folks, is that much like my good friend Steve Sjuggerud like to do... buy something when every hates it... I'm just saying, that it rings a bell... 

On a sidebar, if you're ever around me again, ask me to tell you the joke about ringing a bell...

Well, it was reported yesterday for the 22nd consecutive month that China didn't "officially" add any physical Gold to their "official holdings"... What! What? Is that right? Well, in my humble country bumpkin opinion (texters use IMHO, I use IMHCBO) I don't see any way in hell that their "official" Gold reserves are just 1,842.6 tonnes... And China won't reveal their true holdings until they think the time is right... When that will be is anybody's guess, but remember that there is a pattern here...

In China it is fashionable to hold back and then come out with both guns blazing, when it comes to announcing their Gold holdings... China reported zero increases in its gold reserve from late 2002 to April 2009 and then again from April 2009 until July 2015 and on each occasion then reported massive increases. 

So, if the pattern repeats, then we won't hear about China's real Gold reserves until 2021 or later... UGH! But if things go the way I believe them to be going, we won't have to wait until 2021... wink, wink... 

Back here in the U.S. things are beginning to unravel for the economy... In jus the last week, we've seen a drop in household employment, a slide in full-time jobs, and a retreat in factory payrolls. There's more but I don't want to scare the bejeebers out of you... But there was one piece of data the other day that caught my eye...

Consumer Credit (read Debt), exploded higher in July to $16.6 Billion from the $9 Billion figure for June... That’s an annual growth rate of 5.1%. Economists had been expecting a $13.9 billion gain, and surprised most economists... I think this will probably be a case of student loans growing by leaps and bounds, because, well, EVERYBODY has to go to college, right? 

There's not much in the U.S. Data Cupboard today... PPI (wholesale inflation will print for August and the Fed's Beige Book will print, and that's about it... Yesterday, I made a big deal out of the trio of Bernanke, Paulson and Geithner's oped in the NY Times... Calling it the band getting back together... Well, after their reunion concert, they're going on the road! Seriously! They're taking their act on the road! Can you believe that one? These guys seriously believe that they saved the world... 

When in reality, they helped usher in the mess that they then think they saved us from.. I'm just saying... I wouldn't pay on iota of attention to what they have to say, other than to point out the problems with what they're saying! 

There's a big to-do that's going to take place in this weekend... It's called the Shanghai Cooperation Organization ("SCO") summit that will take place in Qingdao. Man would like to be a fly on the wall there! You don't think these Asian countries are going to get together and agree to something like... eliminating dollars from their reserves, do you? I'm just thinking that given all the talk about this from Russia and China in recent months, that it makes sense that this is the direction Asia would go... 

To Recap... The currencies and metals found a way to drift higher yesterday, but in real terms there wasn't much movement at all... Chuck believes traders are waiting to hear the color of the ECB's talk tomorrow after their meeting... Chuck also believes they won't hear anything worthwhile from the ECB... The price of Oil rebounded on depleted supplies data, and China once again reported no gains to their Gold holdings... Chuck wonders when China's pants will catch fire...

Chuck Again... Remember this... I warned you... many years in advance that your civil liberties were being taken away from you, so when it finally dawns on everyone, they can't blame me for not telling them! And asking them... Got Gold?

Currencies today 9/12/18... American Style: A$ .7115, kiwi .6515, C$ .7660, euro 1.1581, sterling 1.2984, Swiss $1.0272, European Style: rand 15.1102, krone 8.3145, SEK 9.0414, forint 280.35, zloty 3.7195, koruna 22.0721, RUB 69.96, yen 111.50, sing 1.3767, HKD 7.8490, INR 72.18, China 6.8663, peso 19.17, BRL 4.1199, Dollar Index 95.16, Oil $69.84, 10-year 2.96%, Silver $14.15, Platinum $788.92, Palladium $975.22, and Gold... $1,196.89

That's it for today... thank goodness for the MLB app, that I have on my TV, and can watch my beloved Cardinals games while down here at my home away from home. Or watch the games on my iPhone or iPad if away from my TV... When I was a young man, the only way I could see my team was if I went to Busch Stadium! Kids today, they have it so easy! HA! Well, I need to get this out the door, so... Kansas takes us to the finish line today with their song: Dust In The Wind... (I have a good story about me singing that song in a town square in Cancun, if you ever want to hear about it!) I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday, and remember to Be Good To Yourself!