Technical outlook on USD/JPY, EUR/USD, BTC/USD

Bank of Japan policy meeting – USD/JPY

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its policy review on Thursday. Amid the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy, global central banks have been treading carefully, some opting to keep rates steady until clearer economic signals emerge. The BoJ is no exception, with policymakers likely holding rates at 0.5% for the third consecutive meeting since January’s 25bps hike.

New economic forecasts could offer clues about the central bank’s outlook, but the timing of the next potential rate hike will remain the key question, especially with inflation staying stubbornly above the BoJ’s 2.0% target.

Futures markets have pared back expectations for further tightening, now pricing in just 16 basis points of hikes by year-end. As a result, any surprises from the BoJ could spark fresh volatility in USDJPY, which will also be sensitive to a busy week of US data releases.

Technically, USDJPY found a strong base around the familiar 139.50–140.00 region last week. A decisive close above 144.20 could open the door for a rally toward the 145.40 resistance, and eventually to the critical trendline at 147.15. Still, despite the recovery, short-term indicators suggest caution before fully committing to a bullish outlook.

Eurozone CPI inflation – EUR/USD

Meanwhile, in the eurozone, all eyes will be on Friday’s CPI inflation report (09:00 GMT). Although the US has recently paused tariffs on several major trade partners, the euro area continues to face restrictions on car exports – a sector crucial to EU-US trade relations. It’s still too soon for April’s data to reflect these tensions, but traders are closely looking for any surprises, particularly with markets pricing a 75% chance of a 25bps rate cut in June.

Analysts forecast the headline CPI to edge lower to 2.1% year-on-year from 2.2%, while core inflation is expected to rise slightly to 2.5% y/y from 2.4%.

Technically, EURUSD remains vulnerable after retreating from last Monday’s 3½-year high of 1.1572. However, support around 1.1290 remains resilient, and the 1.1175–1.1200 area could serve as a strong floor to shield the pair from deeper losses toward 1.0975-1.1030. A convincing break above recent highs is needed to reignite bullish sentiment.

US core PCE, GDP growth, ISM business PMI, Nonfarm Payrolls – BTC/USD

The US economic calendar will be packed in the second half of the week, featuring key releases such as Q1 GDP and core PCE inflation on Wednesday, ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday, and the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.

Analysts anticipate a notable slowdown in Q1 GDP growth to 0.4% q/q down sharply from 2.4% previously. Core PCE inflation is expected to ease to 2.6% y/y from 2.8%, while nonfarm payrolls could show the economy added 130k jobs in April, compared to 228k in March. However, a steady unemployment rate at 4.2% and a rebound in average hourly earnings to 3.9% y/y could provide some support for the US dollar.

For riskier assets like BTCUSD, this week’s data could be pivotal. Bitcoin, which has recently outperformed both gold and Wall Street, may continue its rally. Fundamentals are also providing a boost, with reports suggesting the Trump administration plans to overturn a controversial IRS rule requiring extensive trader disclosures, and rumors that China might be selling off US Treasuries to invest more heavily in Bitcoin and gold.

From a technical standpoint, BTCUSD appears to be forming a bullish hammer candlestick – a classic reversal signal. If confirmed, this could drive prices toward the key resistance zone at 98,185. Sustained upside momentum could next target the 102,500 level, with an eventual move toward the all-time high at 109,071 a possibility if bullish forces persist.