Technical outlook on USD/JPY, NZD/USD, Gold [Video]

US Nonfarm Payrolls → USD/JPY

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, stressing that progress toward the 2.0% inflation target remains modest and reaffirming price stability as the Fed’s primary mandate. Markets responded by repricing the odds of a 25bps September hike to more than 50%, sending USD/JPY above the key 159.50 resistance toward the 160.00 psychological barrier.

However, the bulls failed to clear the 50-day EMA as the risk of FX intervention continues to hang in the background. At the same time, Warsh’s preference for data dependency over forward guidance may encourage thinner liquidity ahead of Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls.

Consensus expects 58k new jobs following July’s 23k decline, an unchanged 4.1% unemployment rate, and wage growth easing to 3.0% y/y from 3.2%. A downside surprise could be partly cushioned by safe-haven flows if US-Iran military tensions escalate further. Therefore, barring intervention, attention remains firmly on the 160.00 area, with a sustained break potentially opening the way toward 161.00 and then up to 162.00.

RBNZ Rate Decision → NZD/USD

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand takes center stage on Wednesday (02:00 GMT), with markets fully pricing in a back-to-back 25bps hike to 2.75%. Above-target inflation keeps hawkish forward guidance on the table, as futures markets price in an additional hike by year-end.

A hawkish policy guidance could see NZD/USD pivot off its 20-day SMA near 0.5900 to test the key 0.5990 horizontal resistance level established in May. However, the recent increase in the unemployment rate to 5.6% and anchored inflation expectations slightly above 2% may prompt the RBNZ governor to favor a gradual tightening pace. Considering geopolitical risks, which favor the US dollar, the pair could face a rocky path ahead. On the downside, fresh selling might be waiting near 0.5890.

US-Iran Conflict → Gold

Gold plunged to 4,396 following Warsh’s speech as the US 10-year Treasury yield surged above 4.70%, with shorter-term yields rising even faster.

Although gold remains on track for a positive monthly close, currently establishing a footing near its 20-day SMA, Friday’s sharp decline reinforces the risk of a short-term bearish pullback. Technically, the bears need a sustained break below 4,300 to trigger deeper selling towards 4,000.

Beyond the NFP data, markets will also monitor the escalating US-Iran conflict after the US attacked Iran’s Larak Island and Iran retaliated with strikes against US bases in Jordan and UAE. President Trump’s AI-generated video depicting fires on Kharg Island further suggests that Washington remains willing to combine military pressure with sanctions to force Tehran to make concessions over its nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz.

Against this backdrop, gold has recently traded more like a risk asset than a traditional safe haven. Without renewed US fiscal or debt concerns or a potentially disappointing jobs report, elevated real yields could keep bullion vulnerable to further downside momentum.