Technical outlook on Gold, USD/JPY, BTC/USD [Video]

US core PCE inflation – Gold

Gold climbed to a new all-time high of 4,690 on Monday after renewed tariff threats reignited safe-haven demand. Over the weekend, President Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods from European countries supporting Greenland, effective February 1, warning that duties could rise to 25% in June unless negotiations lead to a complete purchase agreement.

Technically, gold is trading just below the key 4,722 resistance level, with overbought signals still present. Should the tariff rhetoric prove to be another negotiating tactic, the precious metal may immediately reverse recent gains and pull back towards the 4,430-4,480-constraining zone. However, continued geopolitical uncertainty – particularly fears that the EU could retaliate using its Anti-Coercion Instrument – could keep buyers engaged, opening the door toward the 4,820 region.

The macro focus will turn to the U.S. core PCE inflation report on Thursday. Core PCE is expected to stabilize around 2.8% y/y in November, while consumer spending is seen rising 0.5% m/m. Final Q4 GDP may also be revised higher. Meanwhile, the World Economic Forum in Davos could offer opportunities for an easing in diplomatic tensions.

BoJ policy decision – USD/JPY

USDJPY has slipped to 157.81, extending its decline off the 18-month high of 159.44 on the back of rising U.S.–EU trade tensions and renewed FX intervention warnings from Japanese officials. Momentum indicators suggest bullish fatigue, with the RSI easing from overbought levels and the stochastic oscillator declining as well.

Beyond U.S. inflation data, markets are focused on Friday’s Bank of Japan policy decision. While no immediate rate hike is expected, any guidance pointing to a potential policy shift later this year – possibly as early as April – could trigger volatility. Japan’s national CPI may set the tone earlier in the session.

A sustained break below 157.30 could expose the 50-day SMA at 156.20, followed by 155.75. Only a decisive move below 154.35 would turn the short-term outlook bearish.

Risk sentiment – BTC/USD

BTCUSD fell to 91,864 as liquidations intensified following renewed geopolitical tensions. While momentum indicators remain negatively charged, the 20-day SMA continues to buffer selling pressures, and its bullish crossover with the 50-day SMA is still endorsing the soft positive trajectory in the short-term picture.

A break below 88,950 could accelerate losses towards 84,885. On the upside, a move above 95,500 would allow a retest of 97,924.

Bitcoin may remain sensitive to U.S. dollar swings, regulatory headlines - including the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act - and U.S. earnings-related volatility in the coming weeks.