Technical outlook on Gold, Oil, USD/JPY [Video]

US-Iran conflict --> Oil

Crude oil markets opened the week with a sharp bullish gap near 75.00 - the highest since the summer and roughly 10% above Friday’s close of 67.31 - after the US, Israel, and the UK launched drone strikes against Iran over the weekend, reportedly killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior officials. Tehran responded forcefully, escalating tensions across the Middle East and rejecting further nuclear negotiations with Washington.

Market participants are now focused on who will succeed Iran’s leadership, while closely monitoring developments in the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage that carries about 20% of global oil trade. Any prolonged disruption or closure could fuel another surge in prices and intensify global supply concerns.

At the same time, six OPEC exporters, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, agreed on Sunday to accelerate output increases to 206k barrels per day, up from 137k in December. However, the decision has done little to calm fears of a broader regional conflict.

On the technical front, WTI crude is trying to set a footing near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2022–2025 downtrend, around the 73.35 area, which also aligns with a falling resistance line. A sustained break above this zone could clear the path toward 79.60–80.00, levels last seen in early 2025.

Safe-haven demand --> Gold

Demand for safe havens accelerated on Monday, with gold extending last week’s upturn to 5,419 - the level where bulls lost momentum in January - and remaining slightly below the all-time high of 5,597. The recovery continued as Treasury yields declined, even as the U.S. dollar strengthened.

Questions are now emerging about how long the regional Middle East conflict will last after President Trump said in a social media post that “the heavy and pinpoint bombing will continue, uninterrupted throughout the week or as long as necessary to achieve our objective of PEACE THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST AND, INDEED, THE WORLD.”

With more attacks expected, the precious metal's latest rebound may still be in its early stages. Traders await a close above the 5,420 barrier to target the 6,000 psychological level. However, with overbought signals still in place, a temporary slowdown cannot be ruled out, though upside risks are unlikely to fade unless the price falls below 5,090.

US nonfarm payrolls --> USDJPY

The US dollar bounced up on Monday, reclaiming its safe-haven appeal as traders reacted to renewed tensions in the Middle East, which weighed on major European and Asian currencies. USDJPY climbed as high as 157.21 early Monday, largely ignoring comments from the Bank of Japan’s deputy governor, who reiterated that further rate hikes are expected but left the timing uncertain.

The pair now sits within a caution zone historically seen by BoJ officials as a potential limit for FX intervention. However, authorities may exercise patience ahead of Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls, which could add another layer of volatility. February job growth is forecast at 55k, down from January’s 130k increase, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 3.7% year-on-year, outpacing inflation, while investors will monitor any negative revisions to January’s unexpectedly strong report.

US retail sales, also due Friday, and Japan’s employment data on Tuesday will likely draw attention. From a technical perspective, the 50-day SMA near 156.00 provides solid support. A sustained move above the resistance near 157.50 could pave the way for further gains towards 159.00.