USD/CAD technical analysis – Negative bias stalls; positive price action develops

Anthony Charalambous, CFTe XM

USDCAD has pushed over the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of 1.3204 and is ready to face the mid-Bollinger band at 1.3267, following a recent bounce off the lower Bollinger band. The gliding 50- and 100-day SMAs appear to be escorting the price into a neutral-to-bearish structure.

Nonetheless, the short-term oscillators are continuing to exhibit improving momentum. The MACD, marginally below its red trigger line and zero mark, looks set to return above them, sponsoring extra gains in the pair. The stochastic oscillator is echoing a strong bullish tone, while the increasing RSI is attempting to maintain its climb above the 50 threshold.

If the price holds above the 50-day SMA at 1.3204, resistance may originate from the mid-Bollinger band at 1.3267 ahead of the 1.3340 barrier and adjacent 100-day SMA at 1.3351. Stepping above this limiting obstacle, the pair may tackle the 1.3420 fortified peak with the neighbouring upper Bollinger band of 1.3442. Should buyers manage to sustain this drive upwards, they may then target the 1.3500 handle prior to hitting the 200-day SMA at 1.3554. Should additional gains in price unfold, shifting the bias positive, attention may then turn to the 1.3600 and 1.3645 highs.

Alternatively, amplified selling interest may steer the price under the 50-day SMA and towards the 1.3100 handle and adjacent lower Bollinger band at 1.3070. Diving past these constraints may send the pair to a support base from 1.2993 to 1.2950. Plunging past these crucial troughs, the price may test the 1.2884 level - reached in October 2018 - before steeper declines sink deeper towards the 1.2782 and 1.2728 lows.

Summarizing, in the short-term picture USDCAD appears restrained between 1.2993 and 1.3420. Yet, initial breaks below 1.3070 or above 1.3351 would need to occur to build a direction.

Author

Anthony Charalambous, CFTe

Anthony Charalambous joined XM in 2019 and specializes in preparing daily technical analysis, using his years of trading experience to provide detailed forecasting for all major asset classes such as forex, indices, commodities and equities.

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