Technical Analysis – USDCAD tries to surpass 50.0% Fibonacci; weak upside move in near term

XM Research Department XM

USDCAD has been developing within the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.2723 and the 50.0% Fibonacci level of 1.2930 over the last could of weeks. These levels are taken from the downleg from 1.3800 to 1.2060 in the long term. Moreover, the price has surpassed the 20- and 40-simple moving averages in the near term, suggesting further upside potential move.

Looking at the daily timeframe, based on technical indicators, momentum is too weak to provide a sustained move higher. The MACD oscillator is flattening near its trigger line in the positive area, while the RSI indicator is standing near the 50 threshold and is sloping upwards.

In the event of an upside movement, the 50.0% Fibonacci mark at 1.2930 could act as a barrier before being able to re-challenge the 1.3000 handle. A climb above this significant region would open the way towards the 1.3130 resistance level, identified by the peak on March 19, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci.

Should prices move lower, the next support could come at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. A drop below this area would take the price to the next low of 1.2530 and significantly weaken the bullish medium-term structure.

In the bigger picture, the pair has been trading within a rising sloping channel since September 2017, failing several times to exit from this range.

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