EURUSD is bearish in the short-term but is little changed in the big picture with little signs of a reversal in the underlying bull trend.
The market is currently testing the 50-day moving average after breaking below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from 1.0820 to 1.2091. The intra-day bias is tilted to the downside with scope to target the 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.1603 and then support at the 50% retracement at 1.1453. A further extension lower from here would bring prices to a critical level at 1.1300 (near the 61.8% Fibonacci). A move below this area would shift the overall trend to bearish.
A daily close above the immediate resistance level at 1.1792 would weaken the near-term bearish bias and turn the market’s focus back to the upside with scope to re-test the 1.2091 peak, the highest in almost 3 years. From this point, the odds are high for a move towards 1.2500.
The medium-term technical picture still remains positive and the 50 and 200-day moving averages maintain a bullish alignment. The shorter-term bias is weaker as the market remains capped below 1.1880.
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