Weak euro-zone and improving Swiss data bearish for EUR/CHF

Dmitry Lukashov IFC Markets

Euro area data weakened while Swiss indicators improved. Will the EURCHF decline continue?

Euro-zone economic data were weak after flash reading of GDP indicated economic growth slowed in Q2 in single currency area: contraction in manufacturing sector deepened in July, and services sector expansion slowed as Markit’s manufacturing PMI declined to 46.5 from 47.6 and services PMI slipped to 53.2 from 53.6. For the same month KOF Leading Indicators for Switzerland rose to 97.1 from an upwardly revised 93.8 in June. Indicator improved in manufacturing, services and construction sectors. Weaker eurozone data and improving Swiss data are bearish for EURCHF.

On the daily timeframe EURCHF: D1 is retracing lower after hitting 10-month high in the end of April, and is below the 50-day moving average MA(50) which is falling. These are bearish developments.

The Parabolic indicator has formed a sell signal.
The Donchian channel indicates no trend yet: it is flat.
The MACD indicator is below the signal line with the gap widening. This is a bearish signal.
The Stochastic oscillator is rising but has not reached the overbought zone.

We believe the bearish momentum will continue after the price breaches below the lower Donchian boundary at 1.0862. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to sell. The stop loss can be placed above the upper Donchian channel at 1.0957. After placing the pending order the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop-loss level (1.0957) without reaching the order (1.0862) we recommend cancelling the order: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

Order	Sell
Sell Stop	Below 1.0862
Stop loss	Above 1.0957

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Author

Dmitry Lukashov

IFC Markets

Dimtry Lukashov is the senior analyst of IFC Markets. He started his professional career in the financial market as a trader interested in stocks and obligations.

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