Technical analysis: Will the rice price reverse its falling?

Dmitry Lukashov IFC Markets

Recommendation for rough rice: Sell

Sell Stop: Below 13.16.

Stop Loss: Above 13.56.

Indicator	Signal
RSI	Neutral
MACD	Sell
Donchian Channel	Neutral
MA(200)
Fractals	Sell
Parabolic SAR	Sell

Chart analysis

The #C-RICE technical analysis of the price chart in daily timeframe shows #C-RICE, D1 has fallen to test unsuccessfully the 200-day moving average MA(200), which is rising still. We believe the bearish momentum will continue as the price breaches below the lower bound of Donchian channel at 13.16. A pending order to sell can be placed below that level. The stop loss can be placed above 13.56. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental analysis

USDA’s weekly net export sales report indicated rice export sales were on the rise. Will the rice price reverse its falling?

US Department of Agriculture weekly net export sales report a couple weeks ago indicated net sales volume was up 84% from previous week at 79,500 metric tons. Higher export sales which point to strong demand are bullish for rice price. At the same time this year the US harvest is expected to be at least 15% off from last year, which is an additional upside risk for rice price. However the current technical setup is bearish for #C-RICE.

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Author

Dmitry Lukashov

IFC Markets

Dimtry Lukashov is the senior analyst of IFC Markets. He started his professional career in the financial market as a trader interested in stocks and obligations.

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