Technical analysis: Will the rice price reverse its falling?

Dmitry Lukashov IFC Markets

Recommendation for rough rice: Sell

Sell Stop: Below 13.16.

Stop Loss: Above 13.56.

Indicator	Signal
RSI	Neutral
MACD	Sell
Donchian Channel	Neutral
MA(200)
Fractals	Sell
Parabolic SAR	Sell

Chart analysis

The #C-RICE technical analysis of the price chart in daily timeframe shows #C-RICE, D1 has fallen to test unsuccessfully the 200-day moving average MA(200), which is rising still. We believe the bearish momentum will continue as the price breaches below the lower bound of Donchian channel at 13.16. A pending order to sell can be placed below that level. The stop loss can be placed above 13.56. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Fundamental analysis

USDA’s weekly net export sales report indicated rice export sales were on the rise. Will the rice price reverse its falling?

US Department of Agriculture weekly net export sales report a couple weeks ago indicated net sales volume was up 84% from previous week at 79,500 metric tons. Higher export sales which point to strong demand are bullish for rice price. At the same time this year the US harvest is expected to be at least 15% off from last year, which is an additional upside risk for rice price. However the current technical setup is bearish for #C-RICE.

Want to get more free analytics? Open Demo Account now to get daily news and analytical materials.

Author

Dmitry Lukashov

IFC Markets

Dimtry Lukashov is the senior analyst of IFC Markets. He started his professional career in the financial market as a trader interested in stocks and obligations.

AUD/USD rises to 0.6950 as USD slips on Fed's Warsh

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the bounce toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. Fed Chair Warsh's comments reinforce the selling pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the pair to stretch higher. Warsh said that he remains committed to delivering price stability without giving away anything on future interest rate path.

USD/JPY falls in symc with USD, gives up 158.00 after Warsh's speech

USD/JPY has come under fresh selling pressure and gives up 158.00 in the Asian session on Friday amid the emergence of fresh US Dollar selling. Fed Chair Warsh's non-committal commentary on the future tightening path, weighs on the US Dollar and the pair.

Gold adds to Thursday's gains as softer bond yields drag USD to over one-week low

Gold attracts buyers for the second straight day on Friday amid a broadly weaker US Dollar, though it remains confined in a two-week-old range. The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, fell to a nearly two-week low as Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the Annual IMF and World Bank Group Meetings did little to alter the rate outlook.

Busy week for Ripple’s RLUSD: What changes for stablecoin holders?

Ripple’s RLUSD is gaining ground across institutional finance, with a major bank launching custody services, a new wallet integration making it easier for developers to build payments and agentic experiences on the network, and a brokerage platform planning to use the stablecoin for settlement.

Hot inflation, falling yields: A new test for global markets

Global markets are confronting a difficult combination: renewed inflation pressure, expensive capital and growing scrutiny of the investment supporting the AI boom. The most revealing development this week was the demand for government bonds even as US inflation accelerated. My assessment is that investors should treat this as a test of financing resilience.

Everyone's dumping Gold after hot US inflation. Here's why $4,100 could be a floor, not a cliff

Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from a sharp sell-off triggered by hotter-than-expected United States (US) inflation data released on Wednesday. The precious metal briefly plunged toward $4,073 as investors increased their bets on further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes before recovering as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD) reversed their initial gains.