Technical Analysis #C-RICE : 2018-09-07

Rising Philippines rice imports bullish for rice price

Philippines is boosting rice imports to curb rising price of the food staple in internal markets. Will the rice price continue rising?

The Philippines legislature has started deliberations to replace rice import limits with a system of tariffs as the government wants to increase the import of the grain to stem the rising of the rice price in internal markets. The change may double country’s rice imports to 3 million tons a year, making the nation the world’s No.2 buyer after China. And Philippines National Food Authority (NFA) Council, the policy making body of the NFA, approved on September 4 the additional importation of 250,000 metric tons of rice to arrive in November 2018. Increased imports from world’s second largest buyer of rice are bullish for rice price.

On the daily timeframe the RICE: D1 has been rising after hitting 3-month low in mid-August. It is rising toward the 50-day moving average MA(50).

• The Parabolic indicator has formed a buy signal.
• The Donchian channel indicates no trend yet: it is flat.
• The MACD indicator gives a bullish signal: it is below the signal line and the gap is narrowing.
• The Stochastic oscillator is rising but hasn’t reached the overbought zone yet.

We expect the bullish momentum will continue after the price breaches above the upper Donchian bound at 10.9260. A price above that level can be used as an entry point for a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below the lower Donchian bound at 10.3890. After placing the pending order, the stop loss is to be moved to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. By doing so, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (10.3890) without reaching the order, we recommend canceling the order: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

Position	Buy
Buy stop	Above 10.9260
Stop loss	Below 10.3890