AUD/USD technical analysis: Ranges somewhat; uptrend under some strain

AUDUSD has dipped below the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) and appears to be testing the lower boundary of a minor consolidation pattern at 0.7666. The directionless Ichimoku lines and the slightly slowed upward pace of the 50-period SMA are feeding the sideways direction in the pair. That said the steady climbing 100- and 200-period SMAs are bolstering the positive structure.

However, the short-term oscillators are leaning towards the downside, nurturing additional negative price action. The MACD is declining further below its red trigger line and the zero mark, while the gliding RSI is nearing the 30 oversold level. The stochastic lines are zig zagging around the 20 level, yet, the %K line’s dip into oversold territory is promoting further fading in the pair. Traders may want to keep an eye on the downturn in the 50-period SMA, which may give clues on a deeper pullback.

If sellers manage to decisively push under the floor of the minor consolidation at 0.7666, early tough support may arise from the section of 0.7624-0.7642, which is defending the positive structure. Should the bears successfully break through this base, the retracement may encounter next hardened support at the 0.7600 trough and from the 200-period SMA at 0.7589 beneath.

On the flipside, a bounce on the floor of the small range could meet initial friction at the 100-period SMA at 0.7693. If the rebound is profound enough, the pair may extend towards the constricting zone from the 0.7727 barrier until the 50-period SMA at 0.7744. Overcoming this too, the price may challenge the resistance section of 0.7805-0.7820, which if conquered could see the bulls pressure the 0.7845 boundary.

Overall, in the short-term timeframe, AUDUSD retains a bullish tone above the 0.7624-0.7642 border. A break above 0.7820 or below 0.7624 could suggest the next price direction.