TRENDING:

GBP/USD

XAU/USD

Tariffs on again?

Nick Mastrandrea Market Tea Leaves

USD: Jun '25 is Down at 98.750.

Energies: Jul '25 Crude is Up at 63.28.

Financials: The Sep '25 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 11 ticks and trading at 112.14.

Indices: The Jun '25 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 106 ticks Lower and trading at 5889.50.

Gold: The Aug'25 Gold contract is trading Up at 3371.10.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Down and Crude is Up which is normal, and the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Higher which is correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is correlated with the US dollar trading Down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. All of Asia traded Lower. All of Europe is trading Lower as well.

Possible challenges to traders

Final Manufacturing PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST. This is Major.
ISM Manufacturing PMI is out at 10 AM EST. This is Major.
ISM Manufacturing Prices is out at 10 AM EST. This is Major.
Construction Spending m/m is out at 10 AM EST. This is Major.
FOMC Member Logan Speaks at 10:15 AM EST. This is Major.
FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks at 12:45 PM EST. This is Major.
Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 1 PM EST. This is Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT). They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract. The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

On Friday the ZT climbed Higher at around 7:30 AM EST with no real news to speak of. The Dow dived Lower at the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The Dow moved Lower at 7:30 AM EST and the ZT climbed Higher at around the same time. These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better. This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $6.25. Please note: the front month for ZT is now Sep '25 and the Dow is still Jun '25. I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of BarCharts

ZT -Sep 2025 - 5/30/25

Dow - Jun 2025- 5/30/25

Bias

On Friday we gave the markets a Neutral or Mixed bias and the markets didn't disappoint. The Dow gained 54 points on the session, but the other indices traded Lower. Today we are dealing with a nearly correlated market, and our bias is to the Downside.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

On Friday we learned that the Trump trade tariffs were back on as a court agreed to lift the ban. Apparently, the markets don't like the idea of Higher prices which the tariffs will create. Want to learn Market Correlation and determine market direction hours before the Opening Bell?

Author

Nick Mastrandrea

Market Tea Leaves

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD posts modest gains above 1.1700 as ECB signals pause

The EUR/USD pair posts modest gains around 1.1710 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Euro strengthens against the Greenback after the European Central Bank left its policy rates unchanged and took a more positive view on the Eurozone economy, which has shown resilience to global trade shocks. Financial markets are likely to remain subdued as traders book profits ahead of the long holiday period.

GBP/USD steadies below 1.3400 as traders assess BoE policy outlook

Following Thursday's volatile session, GBP/USD moves sideways below 1.3400 on Friday. Investors reassess the Bank of England's policy oıtlook after the MPC decided to cut the interest rate by 25 bps by a slim margin. Meanwhile, the improving risk mood helps the pair hold its ground.

Gold: 2026 could see new record-highs but a 2025-like rally is unlikely

Gold started the year on a bullish note and registered impressive gains in the first quarter. Following a consolidation phase during the summer months, the precious metal surged higher in the third quarter and reached an all-time record high of $4,381 in October. Although XAU/USD corrected lower, buyers refused to hand over the reins heading into the holiday season.

Week ahead: Key risks to watch in last days of 2025 and early 2026

The festive period officially starts next week, with many traders vacating their desks until the first full week of January, making way for thin trading volumes and very few top-tier releases.

How much can one month of soft inflation change the Fed’s mind?

One month of softer inflation data is rarely enough to shift Federal Reserve policy on its own, but in a market highly sensitive to every data point, even a single reading can reshape expectations. November’s inflation report offered a welcome sign of cooling price pressures.

XRP rebounds amid ETF inflows and declining retail demand demand

XRP rebounds as bulls target a short-term breakout above $2.00 on Friday. XRP ETFs record the highest inflow since December 8, signaling growing institutional appetite.