Targets hit, gaps open, bears still hungry - Here’s what matters next

A lot of the scenarios we mapped last week have now played out - and in several markets, the targets were not just tested but fully reached.

That shifts the focus from chasing the move to watching what happens after the target: continuation, consolidation, or reversal. Across currencies, metals, and commodities, gaps and key channel boundaries are now doing most of the heavy lifting. In other words, the market has already made the first move - now we need confirmation before assuming the next one.

Dollar (DX.F)

From today’s perspective, the bulls did more than just break through the upside target we discussed last week - they also completed the minimum measured move based on the black rising channel.

So, what comes next?

With that upside scenario now completed and visible negative divergences between the Dollar and the indicators, a correction of the latest rally may be just around the corner.

There is one particularly important condition to watch today.

If the bears manage to close the session below 100.93, they would gain another ally: a potential bearish engulfing pattern.

If that scenario develops, the next logical step would be a test of the broken upper boundary of the black rising channel.

What would invalidate this bearish setup? A break above the June and July highs.

Daily Takeaway: Watch 100.93 into the daily close. A close below it would strengthen the correction scenario and put the broken upper boundary of the black rising channel back in play. A break above the June and July highs would invalidate that setup.

Platinum (PL.F)

Last week’s daily close below the key 1764 support triggered the bearish scenario we discussed earlier and opened the door toward 1723.

But the sellers did not stop there.

Yesterday’s fresh bearish gap at 1736-1744 gave the bears enough momentum to push Platinum toward the psychological 1700 barrier.

What comes next?

As long as yesterday’s bearish gap remains open, our previous scenario stays valid:

“(...) this could eventually lead to a test of the lower boundary of the green rising channel. (...)”

Daily Takeaway: As long as the 1736-1744 bearish gap remains open, sellers still have the advantage. The 1700 barrier is already under pressure, while the lower boundary of the green rising channel remains the broader downside risk.

Palladium (PA.F)

Let’s start with the exact quote from the previous outlook:

“(....) Today’s decline also pushed Palladium below the consolidation we discussed yesterday. That means another downswing toward 1235 - or even 1226 - cannot be ruled out.

What would open the door for sellers? A daily close below 1266.(....)”

Looking at the chart today, that scenario developed exactly as expected, with sellers extending the decline and reaching our downside targets.

So, what now?

On one side, Palladium is sitting around an important 78.6% Fibonacci support area, where a battle is currently taking place.

On the other side, yesterday’s small bearish gap at 1218-1223 remains open.

Add the lack of clear buy signals, and another downswing - potentially toward the lower boundary of the red declining channel - may be just around the corner.

Daily Takeaway: The downside targets have already been reached, but sellers may not be finished. As long as the 1218-1223 bearish gap remains open and clear buy signals are missing, another downswing toward the lower boundary of the red declining channel remains possible.

Wheat (ZW.F)

Let’s start with the previous outlook:

“(…) There is also a fresh bearish development worth watching: today’s decline pushed price below the lower boundary of the recent 710–734 orange consolidation. We don’t have the daily close yet, so keep an eye on where today’s session finishes but if the breakdown holds, it increases the odds of another leg lower and at least a test of the lower boundary of the green rising channel in the coming days.(…)”

From today’s perspective, that scenario played out as expected. The bears extended the decline and tested the downside target we discussed.

The latest price action also pushed yesterday’s close below that important support line.

That said, the bulls still have one meaningful support area left: the green bullish gap at 674-692. Therefore, in our opinion, as long as that gap remains open, buyers still have a solid base from which they could attempt a rebound.

Price has already moved back inside the channel, but the real confirmation will come from the daily close.

So, what would the bulls need to do next? Their next job would be to attack last week’s small bearish gap and the broken lower boundary of the orange consolidation at 710.

Daily Takeaway: Watch 674-692. As long as the bullish gap remains open, buyers still have a base for a rebound. A confirmed daily close back inside the channel would improve the setup, with last week’s bearish gap and 710 becoming the next upside objectives.

Quick cheat sheet

Dollar (DX.F): Watch the 100.93 level into the daily close. A close below it would strengthen the correction scenario and put the broken upper boundary of the black rising channel back in play. A break above the June and July highs would invalidate the bearish setup.

Platinum (PL.F): Watch the 1736-1744 bearish gap. As long as it remains open, the bearish scenario stays active, with the 1700 barrier under pressure and the lower boundary of the green rising channel still in play.

Palladium (PA.F): Watch the 78.6% Fibo support area and the open bearish gap at 1218-1223. As long as that gap remains open and there are no clear buy signals, another downswing toward the lower boundary of the red declining channel remains possible.

Wheat (ZW.F): Watch the bullish gap at 674-692. As long as it remains open, buyers still have a solid base for a rebound. A confirmed daily close back inside the green rising channel would strengthen the bullish case, with last week’s bearish gap and 710 becoming the next upside objectives.

Wait for confirmation, protect your capital, and stay one step ahead.