Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Market Movers ahead
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The next scheduled date for the trade disputes is 30 June, where the US government is set to announce plans for restricting Chinese investments.
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The European Council meeting on 28-29 June will be important for whether the German government crisis is resolved, what line the new Italian government takes and possibly for the Brexit process.
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We expect the June inflation number for the euro area to be 2%, up from 1.9%, but it is likely to decline again later this year.
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The most important US inflation measure is likely to have increased in May.
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Swedish data is likely to show another trade deficit in May.
Global macro and market themes
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A further escalation in trade tensions has become our baseline scenario ahead of 6 July.
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The escalation will weigh on global economic growth.
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Equity volatility will be high, with downside risks for equities near term.
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Industrial and agricultural commodities are primarily at risk.
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The prospects of a stronger USD, lower commodity prices and weaker global growth weigh on emerging markets.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds above 1.0650 after US data
EUR/USD retreats from session highs but manages to hold above 1.0650 in the early American session. Upbeat macroeconomic data releases from the US helps the US Dollar find a foothold and limits the pair's upside.
GBP/USD retreats toward 1.2450 on modest USD rebound
GBP/USD edges lower in the second half of the day and trades at around 1.2450. Better-than-expected Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index data from the US provides a support to the USD and forces the pair to stay on the back foot.
Gold clings to strong daily gains above $2,380
Gold trades in positive territory above $2,380 on Thursday. Although the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds steady following upbeat US data, XAU/USD continues to stretch higher on growing fears over a deepening conflict in the Middle East.
Ripple faces significant correction as former SEC litigator says lawsuit could make it to Supreme Court
Ripple (XRP) price hovers below the key $0.50 level on Thursday after failing at another attempt to break and close above the resistance for the fourth day in a row.
Have we seen the extent of the Fed rate repricing?
Markets have been mostly consolidating recent moves into Thursday. We’ve seen some profit taking on Dollar longs and renewed demand for US equities into the dip. Whether or not this holds up is a completely different story.