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Danske Research Team Danske Bank A/S

Market movers ahead

In the US, we expect the Fed to hike the target range to 2.00-2.25% and PCE core inflation to rise +0.1% m/m which leaves y/y unchanged at 2.0%.
In the trade war, we are still awaiting an official response to the US invitation for highlevel talks sent on 12 September.
In the euro area, we expect HICP inflation to slow further to 2.01% y/y driven by lower contribution from both food and energy prices.
In Italy, it will be very interesting to see if the budget deficit is in line with EU regulations. We expect the 2019 deficit to land somewhere between 2.0-2.4% of GDP.
In Scandinavia, we will look for Danish business confidence, Swedish retail sales and Norwegian unemployment among others.

Global macro and market themes

The tit-for-tat trade dispute between the US and China escalated this week.
But the market reaction was positive, as the actions were not as bad as expected.
Indeed, both countries pushed for lower trade barriers (with other countries).
While it will be a long and difficult road, we think a deal will be reached.
This may actually leave the world economy better off than before the whole trade dispute started.

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Danske Research Team

Danske Bank A/S

Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.

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