Italy countdown

Market movers ahead

  • In the US, we expect the Fed to hike the target range to 2.00-2.25% and PCE core inflation to rise +0.1% m/m which leaves y/y unchanged at 2.0%.

  • In the trade war, we are still awaiting an official response to the US invitation for highlevel talks sent on 12 September.

  • In the euro area, we expect HICP inflation to slow further to 2.01% y/y driven by lower contribution from both food and energy prices.

  • In Italy, it will be very interesting to see if the budget deficit is in line with EU regulations. We expect the 2019 deficit to land somewhere between 2.0-2.4% of GDP.

  • In Scandinavia, we will look for Danish business confidence, Swedish retail sales and Norwegian unemployment among others.


Global macro and market themes

  • The tit-for-tat trade dispute between the US and China escalated this week.

  • But the market reaction was positive, as the actions were not as bad as expected.

  • Indeed, both countries pushed for lower trade barriers (with other countries).

  • While it will be a long and difficult road, we think a deal will be reached.

  • This may actually leave the world economy better off than before the whole trade dispute started.


Download The Full Weekly Focus

This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.