A slowly fought trade war

ANALYSIS | 03/23/2018 13:42:00 GMT

Market movers ahead

In the euro area, we project HICP inflation in March will bounce back to 1.5% y/y supported by Easter effects.
Several Fed members are due to speak in coming weeks, giving further insight into the future hiking pace.
Average hourly earnings will again be in focus in the US labour market report for March. We expect PCE core inflation figures to remain unchanged at 1.5% y/y.
In Japan, keep an eye on private consumption and labour market data.
We expect Chinese Caixin PMI manufacturing to decline, driven by financial tightening measures.
In Scandinavia, Danish business confidence and Norwegian house prices are due for release.

Global macro and market themes

The trade war is being fought very slowly.
The Fed lifted its rate path slightly due to Trumponomics.
We are keeping an eye on the increasing Libor/OIS spread.
The Brexit transition deal is not a game changer for EUR/GBP.

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