Supreme Court ruling on tariffs a 'game changer for markets'; USD sell off

“The Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs will unlikely be a big game changer for markets. Not only was the decision broadly expected, but the president has already signalled that he will quickly pivot to other legal tools to achieve similar trade restrictions, and he has at his disposal multiple levers to pull in order to circumvent the verdict. This means that while we could see some near-term disruption, his long-term tariff strategy is unlikely to be derailed so long as the White House can replicate the regime through alternative methods.

“The dollar has sold-off in response to the ruling, which is perhaps somewhat counterintuitive given that it also lost ground when the tariffs were first unveiled. On this occasion, we think that the move probably reflects heightened fiscal concerns, as markets fret that the massive tariff refunds could create a significant US budget shortfall, a higher deficit and an increase in debt issuance.”