GBPUSD, H1, Daily

The Pound took a dip on sub-forecast UK CPI data, headline CPI coming in at a rate of 1.9% y/y, unchanged from February, but below the median forecast for 2.0% y/y. Core CPI also remained unchanged at 1.8% y/y, contrary to the market expectation for a tick higher to 1.9%. The BoE had been anticipating a tick higher in headline CPI, so today’s figures have painted a more benign near-term price picture than the central bank envisaged. Cable printed a low at 1.3032, so far today, retesting the the Asian session low. As for Brexit, while there has been some reprieve of related angst brought about by the delay in the process, the attention in market narratives has been turning the deleterious economic impact the associated uncertainty has been inflicting on the UK economy. In the mix is diminished expectations for the UK government and the Labour party, the principal opposition, coming together on Brexit following a Guardian report yesterday. Yesterday’s robust employment data was backward looking, with more timely March PMI surveys having already highlighted a reduction in employment in the UK’s dominant service sector, suggesting there has been a deterioration in employment conditions that is not yet being reflecting by official data. Recent range lows in Cable are contained within 1.2957 and key 1.3000, which mark out a reference support zone, including the key 200-day moving average. The pair have been below the 20-day moving average for 15 trading days, since March 27. The 20 MA now sits at 1.3095 and the first important resistance level. RSI (45) and MACD (below 0) are both biased to the downside.







Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

Feed news

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: Snaps four-day winning run, but bull breakout still valid

EUR/USD fell 0.28 percent on Tuesday, engulfing Monday's high and low and ending the four-day winning streak. The currency pair however, defended the former resistance-turned-support of the 200-day MA.


GBP/USD retraces from 5-week high amid fewer fresh catalysts from UK

While renewed fears of no-deal Brexit and less dovish Fed speak dragged the GBP/USD pair back from a month’s high, the Cable trades little changed near 1.2690 during early Wednesday.


USD/JPY: Bulls back in charge, re-takes 107.50

The less dovish rhetoric from a selection of Fed speakers overnight continues to aid the post-FOMC US dollar recovery, prompting the USD/JPY pair to retest the midpoint of the 107 handle despite negative Asian equities. 


Conference Board Consumer Confidence: The China syndrome

The index declined to 121.5 in June from April’s revised 131.3. A much more modest drop to 131.2 had been predicted.  “The escalation in trade and tariff tensions earlier this month appears to have shaken consumers’ confidence,” wrote Lynn Franco.

Read more

Gold bulls target $1485/oz

Gold prices rallied in Asia but stalled and started to deteriorate in European markets into consolidation before a sell-off emerged on the back of less dovish than expected rhetoric from Fed speakers on New York.

Gold News