Stages of Brexit deal

Brexit headlines filled the news in the last couple of weeks as Brexit negotiations seem to go nowhere and the UK Prime Minister was under increased pressure from both Conservative party members of the UK parliament as well as from the EU.

On the top of it, the UK government lost some key ministers including David Davis, the Brexit minister as well as the foreign affairs minister Boris Johnson. The expectations have completely changed just within a few days, from a soft Brexit anchored by so-called Chequers agreement to even the threat of a hard Brexit following the House of Commons disillusion over the government’s version of amendments to the Customs Bill.

The Brexit process itself though consists of two separate stages with much of the noise concerning the more pressing first stage. First, it is the withdrawal and transition agreement, where about 80% of work has already been completed and the EU may exhibit some increased flexibility about the remaining 20%. Experts expect the first stage to be completed and signed off by year-end to allow national legislation of individual EU member states to confirm the deal by March 29, 2019, when the formal two-year exit period ends. 

The second stage is the trade deal. Getting the trade deal done is a harder nut to crack and this is the reason why to get the Customs amendments passed in the House of Commons the UK Prime Minister pulled out the threats of the early elections.

The Chequers proposal is focusing on the second stage, the trade deal, and for that reason, the negotiating parties, both the EU and the UK will not fully be fully concentrating on that stage until 2019 and 2020, once the UK has formally left the EU. 

The negotiating process comes in in stages and that has often been a test of EU’s patience. The shape of the trade deal though still has the time to be finalized and the outcome is still open.