Gold gains as traders eye upcoming US data

Gold and silver extended gains into the US trading session as investors kept shifting into safe-haven assets. President Donald Trump’s recent ousting of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has injected fresh, likely lasting risk into financial markets, bolstering the outlook for further precious‑metals strength.

Precious metals delivered a spectacular rally in 2025, with gold up 65% and silver soaring more than 140%. While this year’s performance may fall short of those outsized gains, the current geopolitical backdrop still appears supportive of further upside in the near term.

Spot gold (XAU=) climbed 0.8% to $4,484.76 per ounce at 9:49 p.m. ET (1449 GMT). Silver rose 4.56% to 79.80 per ounce.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warned Monday that a sudden rise in unemployment could heighten the odds of a rate cut. Markets still expect two cuts this year and are awaiting Friday’s December payrolls report for policy guidance. 

CME FedWatch:

Current Target Rate = 3.50 - 3.75

·         CME FedWatch January no rate change probabilities have moved higher to 83.9% today from 65.4% on December 05, 2025. 

Technical analysis perspective:

Gold / US Dollar:

·         Spot gold hit a new record high of $4,550.15 on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025.

·         Prices have rebounded 5.08% from last week’s low at $4,274.

·         On the hourly chart, gold is trading within a rising channel and is likely to oscillate between $4,500 and $4,455–$4,453.

·         A breakout on either side of this range will determine the next directional move.

·         A downside break below $4,453 would open the way for a retest of the $4,405–$4,400 recent breakout area.

Gold hourly chart:

Gold/Silver Ratio:

·         The gold-silver ratio tracks how many ounces of silver are required to buy one ounce of gold by dividing gold’s price by silver’s price. It is key metric investors use to judge relative value and anticipate potential market moves.

·         The gold-silver ratio dipped to 55.625 today, its lowest level since March 2013.

·         Historically, a ratio at or below 60 has often preceded a sharp decline in both gold and silver prices. 

Gold/Silver Ratio Monthly chart:

GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) ETF:

·         GLD printed a new all-time high of 418.45 on Friday December 26, leaving a sizable upside gap.

·         ETF dipped after rejecting 412, the price gap at the end of December.

·         As long as 412 contains rallies, a dip to 403 -398 is on the way.

·         A strong push above 412 would pave the way for a rise to 418, which is unlikely for now. 

GLD daily chart:

GLD Seasonality:

Since 2007, GLD has risen an average of 3.3% in January 70% of the time, and 1.00% in February 58% of the time.