Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Danish card and MobilePay data show spending up by around 5% in the beginning of January 2022 compared to January 2019. Given rising inflation and changes in spending behavior away from cash, this implies that spending in real terms is only at 2019 levels or even below. This is largely driven by depressed spending in physical locations. Aside from restrictions, higher spending on energy might play a part as well.
Travel spending has had a remarkable recovery in January. Spending is still down 15- 20% in the first full week of the year compared to 2019 and 2020, but compared to December and the beginning of last year, we see a clear improvement. Clearly, consumers are more optimistic about planning holidays abroad for 2022.
Restaurant spending has held up remarkably well. Accounting for prices, and less cash spending it is around 10-15% below normal, but it supports the claim that there is still a solid appetite for going out.
Spending in cultural venues, such as cinemas, museums and amusement parks has been lifted significantly by the reopening. For cinemas, spending last week was back at the level from before the shutdown in December, after accounting for seasonality. The recovery has been weaker for theatres and concert halls, and amusement parks are even further behind.
As of next Tuesday, all significant restrictions will be lifted, which should give a further rebound to especially social spending.
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