Spending declines with reopening around the corner

Danske Research Team Danske Bank A/S

Danish card and MobilePay spending, up to the week ending on 21 February, shows spending down by 20% compared to last year. The decline compared to the week before was driven by spending in physical locations, which is now down by 39%.

Spending in restaurants and hotels, which normally fare well during the winter break –" which primarily takes place in week 7 –" declined further, as the holiday driven lift to consumption was largely absent this year.

In retailing, we continue to see a strong spending in super markets and online. Spending in electronic stores continues to perform well, but we have seen spending weaken in recent weeks. Spending on shoes, clothing and DIY also declined in week 7.

We expect to see a large shift in retail spending in coming weeks, as stores outside shopping malls will be allowed to open on Monday March 1st (which will show up in the Spending Monitor published on March 10th).

The partial reopening should lead to a significant increase in spending in physical stores, and a noticeable shift away from online spending. The question of cause being, at which magnitude. We will also be looking out for a shift in spending away from super markets and grocery stores to other parts of retailing.

We do not expect spending in physical stores to return to normal, until shopping malls are opened. This will especially affect sales of clothing and footwear.

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Author

Danske Research Team

Danske Bank A/S

Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.

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