SP500 "Pullback?"

 

SP500

We are entering the 15`^th week of a Primary cycle which started on Feb 9, 2018. We may have seen the nominal 6^th week trough on April 2^nd. We are in a surprising move up starting on May 3^rd, a strong Doji. Nevertheless, we should be looking for the end of the current Primary cycle (the nominal 18-week cycle). 18 weeks is pointing to the week of June 11 but remember it could land between 15 weeks and 21 weeks.

There is also a 9-year cycle due although the current nominal 7-year cycle may have expanded into the 9-year cycle.

The current 4 year cycle for the SP500 started on Feb 11, 2016. We should be looking for a 15.5 month cycle low. There are typically 3 - 15.5 month cycles in the 4 year cycles.

The 4 year may have 3 -15.5 month cycles and / or 2 - 23 month cycles (a half cycle).

For the SP500

The following weekly chart of the SP500 shows the 4 year cycle (blue) and the ½ cycle of 23 months (red).

For the DJIA

The following weekly chart of the DJIA shows the 4 year cycle (blue) and the 15.5 month (red). There are approx. 3 - 15.5 month in the Primary cycle.

The Primary cycle that started on Feb 9^th may form an ending trough near the middle of June.

We may be trending down into a low in that mid June timeframe.

Starting now be prepared for more serious events from now through June 2018. These could be violent events in the mid-East and events involving Russia, China and the US.. This may involve Syria and quite possibly other war like activity in Pakistan and India. We may also see increased earthquakes and volcanic activity. North Korea does not appear to be a problem.

May 23            Mercury opposition Jupiter

Cheerful mood and fluency in speech.

May 23            Sun trine Mars                   

May 25            Jupiter trine Neptune

Lucky mood, easily acquired money or the reverse, shortage of money and / or money losses.

Note Venus will trine both Jupiter and Neptune for a grand trine on June 1st and 2^nd.  These two days could be important.

May 26            Venus opposition Saturn

                        Falsehoods and rejection. Monetary restriction.

In addition transiting Saturn is opposing Trump’s natal Mercury this week. This can result in confused thought or worry. It’s a function of the nerves that is affected. This is a signature which would fit well with Trump being interrogated by Mueller.

The 15 day sma is below price and above the 45 day sma.. The SP500 may be looking at a turn down.

Some of the cycles that are coming due are:

• The Primary Cycle (nominal 18 week) on Feb 9^th.
• 9 month cycle
• 9 year
• 5 week.

 

The Primary Cycles

The SP500 seems to be weakening. It hit the 38.2%, starting on May 14^th and has since been moving down.

If the SP500 is going to retest the Feb 9^th low and move lower we may see a more dramatic move over the next few weeks. War like activity is going to have a negative effect on stocks but probably a beneficial effect on precious metals.

I’m looking for a more dramatic move in mid-June (June 21, 2018) where we have Pluto conjunct the heliocentric nodes of Pluto. This is the second of a 3-pass. This is also getting close to a lunar and solar eclipses. More on the eclipses in a future post. Mid July may be another dramatic event.

On a shorter term basis I track a 27 cd (calendar day) cycle which will be due May 3rd. The 27 cd cycle is the red vertical lines.

9 Year Cycle

As an example of the DJIA following is a weekly chart of the Dow Jones and the 9 year cycle. As we’ve said many times longer term cycles coming due often distorts the faster moving cycles.

The 9 month cycle

The above chart shows the 9 month or 39 week cycle (blue vertical lines). It was due and appears to have formed in late January. The 20 week cycle was added as well (red vertical lines). Any green lines are a combination of the 20 and 40 week cycles.

From the last few posts:

“This coming year could see an increase in geophysical activity, both earthquakes and volcanos.”

Following are the significant earthquakes (> 6.0) so far in January 2018.

Jan 23             Alaska                         7.9

Jan 10             Honduras                    7.5

Jan 14             Peru                            7.1

Jan 19             Mexico                        6.3

Jan 21             Chile                            6.3

Jan 25             Russia                         6.2

Feb 16             Mexico                        7.2

Feb 25             Papua New Guinea    7.5

Mar 6               Papua New Guinea    6.7

Mar 8               Papua New Guinea    6.8

Mar 24             Papua New Guinea    6.3

Mar 24             Southeast Indian Ridge 6.3

Mar 25             Indonesia                     6.4

Mar 26             Papua New Guinea    6.6

Mar 29             Papua New Guinea    6.9

Apr 2               Bolivia                         6.8

Apr 7               Papua New Guinea    6.3

Apr 10             Chile                            6.2

Apr 19             Prince Edward Island 6.0

May 5              Tajikistan                     6.2

May 5              Papua New Guinea    6.0

There has been a number of volcano’s erupting as well. Japan and Hawaii.

On a longer term basis the following monthly chart of the DJIA  shows the 15 year cycle (red vertical lines) and the 45 year cycle (blue lines). The 15 year is due now, the 45 year due in Sept 2019. This is another example of a longer term cycle possibly distorting shorter term cycles. Bear in mind they need a broad orb.

In follow up to Uranus above.

Uranus will go retrograde and then move backward into Aries before Uranus enters Taurus for good. This may also be a problem in currencies and rates.

The above combination, with Saturn, could be defining problems / restrictions for the general population, particularly the mature population (pensions?) and with the Sun could affect the President or other leaders. This combination could affect a number of years in the future as Saturn is in a sign for approx. 2 ½ years. Other conditions this may highlight are State funerals, public sorrow and disappointment in general. State assets could be affected as well as industries connected to metals and mining.

The following monthly chart of the DJIA shows when Saturn has been in Capricorn (red x’s). Notice they have all had significant drops.

There could be some type of surprise coming in 2018 from the government or exposing something from the past. There could also be a major breakdown in world affairs or leaders.

The following daily chart of the SP500 shows the Jupiter price line (blue) and the Sun/Earth price line (green). Both of these price lines have a history of providing support and resistance.

When the two lines cross we often see a big range day or reversal. Note how price went down and stopped on the Sun / Earth Price Line. There was a another big range day on April 6^th.

I continue to watch the 24th harmonic cycle (360 / 24) cycles for short term turns. The brown squares are Sun / Saturn 24 degrees on the following daily chart. The blue vertical lines are 24 cd’s (calendar days).

The last hit was March 29, 2018 and was a big range day. The next dates are May 14, 2018 then June 27^th. I have added 3 price lines to this chart.

• Saturn – black
• Uranus – purple
• Neptune - light blue

Note, on May 14 price moved up and was stopped at the Neptune price line (light blue).

Note the date, Feb 9^th, 2018 was the day of the low and a big range day.

These price lines can act as support / resistance. It has been at highs and lows. Note also when they cross often gets a reaction in price on a short-term basis. Also note, near the top of the chart is a light blue line. This is the Neptune Price Line.