S&P 500: Volatility remains high and price action headline dependant

Marc Nemenoff PRICE Futures Group

Financials: June Bonds are currently 23 lower at 143’17,down about 6’00 for the last week. 10 Year Notes 16 lower at 120’01.5, down 2’12 for the week. The 5 Year note is 13 lower at 113’03.25, down 0’30 for the week. The FOMC minutes showed a consensus at the Fed to take a more hawkish stance against inflation by selling off the Fed’s balance sheet (inventory of notes and Bonds) at a quicker than previously thought pace. The figure of $1.1 trillion per year is the figure I have heard. The figure for rate hikes for the year is now 3.0-3.5%. Yields rose quickly this past week accelerating the flattening of the yield curve. Yields are now as follows: 2 Year 2.57%, 5 Year 2.74%, 10 year2.68% and 30 Year2.69%. A 0.5% rate hike is now priced into market for the May FOMC meeting.

Grains: May Corn is 2’6 higher at 760’4, UP 20”0 for the week. May Beans are 13’6 higher at 1659’2, down 8’0 for the week. This morning we have Crop Production and supply/demand reports. Trends remain up and supplies should remain tight because of sanctions for the global market place. Next week I will begin focusing on Dec. Corn and Nov. Beans which are at a huge discount to May contracts.

Cattle: April Cattle are unchanged at 138.00.down 195 for the week. April Feeder Cattle are also unchanged at 156.40, down 640 for the week. The high cost of feed continues to work against Feeders. My next letter will focus on the Aug. LC/Aug.FC spreads and June LC positions. Today’s crop reports could have an impact on Live and Feeder Cattle prices.

Silver: May Silver is currently 9 cents lower at 24,64, down 59 cents for the week. Support is below 24.40 and Resistance26.20. Near term trend remains down.

S&P: June S&P’s are 15.00 lower at 4481.00, down 6.00 for the week. Volatility remains high and price action headline dependant. SSupport remains at 4485.00 and Resistance remains at 4635.00.

Author

Marc Nemenoff

PRICE Futures Group

Mr. Nemenoff is a 37-year veteran of the futures industry.

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