Monica Kingsley
Monicakingsley
S&P 500 didn‘t keep above NFPs highs, and Trump 80% China tarif „seems right“ message caused sell-the-news reaction just as expected. It was also one of shallow selling, and no bullish positioning ahead of the weekend to speak of. The dollar is also stuck in the key 100-101 zone – shouldn‘t it be higher given the tariff wars resolution on the horizon? For all the positive UK news, it‘s up to China and EU to turn this (long-term) expectation positive – things will not go as smooth as they did with the UK, and any good headline counts.
Yet, bonds aren‘t panicking, and stock market volatility is also reasonably constructive. As stocks struggle with the 200-day moving average for the time being, one has to look for more risk-on areas beyond paper assets.
80% grabs attention headline, but let‘s put it into the 60% pre-elections threat context – can US supply chains really, really reorient that fast? This 80% level will have to go down some more to make it workable for the US not just in the short-term. Some much more… So, caution and realization of the carrot hoopla Friday by stocks shouldn‘t be too surprising (defence of shallow pullback is a constructive sign for sure, and phase one deal announcement works great) – one has to look at bond market holding steady or looking to the exit door instead...
All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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