Some thoughts on the Gold and Silver sell-off

Gold and silver both sold off on Friday in a correction that was probably overdue.

Gold kicked off last week trading just over $5,020. As the week went on, the price soared, topping above $5,600 before crashing back below $5,000 on Friday. The yellow metal dropped as low as $4,679 before recovering to finish around $4,900, down modestly around 2.4 percent on the week.

Even with the huge selloff, gold is still up 13 percent since the beginning of the year.

Meanwhile, silver went on a similar wild ride, topping over $120 before briefly dipping below $80. It also recovered modestly late in the day, finishing around $86.

Even with the selloff, silver is still up 18.7 percent since the beginning of the year.

What sparked the selloff?

Gold and silver were both due for a correction, but what sparked it?

There were two headlines that created selling pressure.

The first was Donald Trump’s announcement that Kevin Warsh will succeed Jerome Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Warsh is considered much more hawkish than many of the other candidates. The markets were counting on the new Fed chief to be more willing to cut interest rates aggressively. As a so-called “inflation hawk,” many think Warsh won’t be quite so accommodating. A higher interest rate environment creates headwinds for gold and silver since they are non-yielding assets.

Not long after Trump announced Warsh as Fed chair, the Producer Price Index data came out and was much hotter than expected. The PPI climbed 0.5 percent month-on-month. The forecast was for a 0.2 percent rise. Core PPI surged 0.7 percent, smashing the 0.2 percent forecast.

Producer prices are generally considered a leading inflation indicator, as companies pass at least some of their higher costs onto consumers. That means we could see a big jump in CPI next month, which would further dampen hopes for interest rate cuts, thus creating more headwinds for gold and silver.

These two news items started the sell-off, and it was undoubtedly exacerbated by computer algorithms executing stop orders at various levels as the price fell. As more investors sold, the price fell further, incentivizing more selling in a relentless downward spiral.

Thoughts on the sell-off

I wanted to share a few random thoughts about the sell-off that might help when the next correction occurs (and there will be more corrections).

Keep Things in perspective – Yes, it was a big selloff. But as I already mentioned, gold and silver were only down modestly on the week, and both metals are up significantly since the beginning of the year. Think about it – people were panicking because gold fell below $5,000. This time last year, $5,000 was still far off on the horizon. And $80 silver? Last year, people wondered if it would ever get to $50.

Corrections are normal and healthy in a bull market – Nothing goes up in a straight line. As I mentioned, we were probably overdue for a correction given the speed of the most recent rally. Both metals were overbought. (a technical term meaning an asset’s price has risen high enough, fast enough, based on a predefined quantitative indicator that makes it statistically stretched to the upside relative to its recent history.) Corrections clear out weak hands, and they create buying opportunities.

Keep your eye on the fundamentals – when you see a big sell-off, ask yourself, ‘What’s changed? Are the dynamics that sparked the bull market still in place?’ If something fundamental has changed, you should reexamine your position. It could indicate a significant market pivot. But if the dynamics remained unchanged, it’s likely just a correction. The dynamics I’m looking at right now are de-dollarization, central bank gold buying, inflation pressures, Federal Reserve monetary easing, geopolitical tensions, and U.S. fiscal malfeasance. Nothing happened on Friday that indicates any of these things will reverse anytime soon.

Everything dumped Friday – You shouldn’t look at the precious metals market in isolation. What else is happening in the broader marketplace? On Friday, everything sold. Stocks were down. Bonds fell modestly. Commodities fell. The only thing that charted a gain was the dollar. That raises a question: Do you trust the long-term prospects of the dollar?

You haven’t lost money unless you sell – Ironically, I calculated my silver gains on Thursday. As some of those gains evaporated on Friday, I caught myself telling my wife we were “losing money.” But I didn’t lose a dime because I didn’t sell. Yes, I took some paper losses, but given that I bought quite a bit of silver at $12, I wasn’t losing money, even on paper. This demonstrates how easy it is to get caught up in emotion. Never let emotion drive investing decision. As I already said, maintain perspective!

It’s not always “manipulation” – Whenever gold or silver sell off significantly, people start speculating about market manipulation. Oddly, I never hear about manipulation when prices rise wildly.  Here’s the reality – prices swing. Sometimes they swing wildly, both up and down. I’m not saying manipulation doesn’t happen. I’m simply pointing out that a big price drop doesn’t “prove” they are manipulating the market.

In conclusion

Sell-offs are scary. They’re unnerving. And they are inevitable.

Could this be the beginning of the end of the gold and silver bull markets? Certainly. But I don’t think it is, for reasons I have been hammering on in this space for months. I think we’re in the early stages of a secular bull market.

However, we should constantly reevaluate the situation with the information at hand. Markest do turn. And we should always remain humble. If we aren’t, the market will humble us! There are many factors working together to move markets up and down.

The key is to stay calm, avoid emotional decisions, and constantly evaluate the fundamentals.