Silver tests a make-or-break point

Silver’s long-term neutral outlook is at risk of a downgrade as the bears keep challenging the floor around 21.40 despite yesterday’s poor upturn.

The RSI and the Stochastics reflect oversold conditions, though neither of those indicators seem determined to change direction to the upside. Therefore, the base scenario is for sellers to dominate in the short term, although the case for a rebound will remain on the cards.

A close lower may initiate a sharper decline towards 20.20, where the key 200-weekly simple moving average (SMA) is positioned. The 19.50 level, which blocked the 2019 rally and delayed bullish corrections in mid-2020, may next attempt to save the market from further depreciation. However, if it proves fragile too, the sell-off could exacerbate to 18.70.

The way higher could be a tough job, as several obstacles may ruin any progress. The area around 22.00 will come first into view, whilst the constraining red Tenkan-sen line could add more pressure, preventing an acceleration to May’s resistance of 23.00. Further up, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) currently at 23.65 could gain exclusive attention.

Overall, silver looks to be trading at a make-or-break point. A clear bounce above 21.40 would allow for more improvement, whereas a decisive close below it could push a group of traders out of the market.