Fundamentally, precious metals could be set for gains heading into Q1 of next year. Inflation remains pressured to the upside and this is keeping real yields lower which helps both gold and silver. The Federal Reserve doesn’t look like raising rates until at least the middle of next year. This scenario has helped support a weaker USD and falling real yields which is typically a tailwind for precious metals.
Silver also has some strong seasonals heading into Q1 next year. Over the last 25 years, silver has risen 18 times between November 15 and February 28. The average gain has been +8.60%. The largest gain was +39.87% in 2008. The largest loss was -13.07% in 2012. There is never any guarantee that this seasonal pattern will repeat again this year. However, it is very helpful to notice when these strong seasonal patterns are in place.
Major Trade Risks: The main risk to this seasonal pattern would be if there is some very hawkish monetary policy decision at the next FOMC policy meeting in December or/and if inflation expectations fell.
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