|

Silver retreats from record high as investors lock in profits

Silver prices dropped more than 3% on Friday after reaching an all-time high earlier in the session, as investors booked profits, while gold slipped back from a seven-week peak.

Spot silver declined around 3% to $61.89 per ounce by 13:40 p.m. ET (18:40 GMT), after touching a record $64.66 earlier.

Silver prices are up nearly 5% for the week and have risen 112% so far this year, driven by shrinking inventories, steady industrial demand, and its addition to the U.S. critical minerals list.

The U.S. Federal Reserve this week delivered its third and final quarter-point rate cut of the year but signaled it would be cautious about any further easing until more data becomes available.

Markets are now pricing in two rate cuts for next year, with investors looking ahead to next week’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report.

U.S. stocks declined on Friday, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to their lowest levels in more than two weeks, as Treasury yields climbed following hawkish comments from several policymakers, while Broadcom’s latest results fueled worries about a potential AI-driven bubble.

CME FedWatch:

·         CME FedWatch January rate cut probabilities are 77.90%.

·         January rate easing probabilities are at 50.5%.

Technical Analysis Perspective:

Silver / US Dollar:

·         Spot silver broke below its rising channel after hitting a new all-time high today.

·         The sell-off is very strong and will likely extend into early next week.

·         Prices appear to be heading toward a test of $59.40, the previous record high.

·         From a technical perspective, a retest of the prior all-time high is a healthy development for the continuation of the uptrend.

·         However, a sustained and sharp move below $59.40 could deepen the correction toward the $57.75–$57.25 area.

Silver Daily chart:

SLV (SPDR Silver trust) ETF:

·         SLV has been trading within an ascending channel since November 21, 2025.

·         Prices rejected the channel’s upper boundary near 58.60, which is now acting as strong resistance.

·         The ETF is hovering around the 56 level; a close below this area would point to further downside toward 53.75–53.40 early next week.

·         Conversely, a daily close above 56 would likely trigger a corrective rebound toward 56.90 and 57.40.

SLV daily chart:

SLV seasonality:

Since 2006, SLV has gained an average of 1.1% in December in 55% of those years, while January has delivered an average rise of 3.8% in 68% of the years.

Author

Ali Merchant, CMT

Ali Merchant, CMT

TwT Learning

Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, & Fund Management, He has been trading FX, FX options, US stocks & opti

More from Ali Merchant, CMT
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD defends 1.3300 after strong UK PMI data

Following Thursday's sharp decline, GBP/USD clings to small gains above 1.3300 in the American session on Friday, supported by the upbeat UK Retail Sales and July PMI data. Nevertheless, the pair's upside remains capped as investors cling to a cautious stance amid a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The US July PMI data failed to trigger relevant price action.

EUR/USD remains below 1.1400 after mixed US PMIs

EUR/USD pressures daily lows below the 1.1400 mark in the American session on Friday. Mixed S&P Global PMIs, as manufacturing output contracted while services activity expanded in July, triggered no relevant market reaction. The focus remains in Middle East developments and inflation-related concerns.

Gold holds above $4,050 but momentum still missing

Gold builds on its modest intraday bounce and climbs above the $4,050 level on Friday, hitting a fresh daily high amid a modest US Dollar pullback. The fundamental backdrop, however, warrants some caution before confirming that the pullback from an over two-week high, touched on Wednesday, has run its course and positioning for any meaningful upside.

Ethereum: Derivatives interest in ETH improves, but signs of caution remain

Ethereum is hovering slightly below the $1,900 level, down 3% on Thursday following a slight expansion in derivatives interest. The top altcoin's open interest has increased to 14.60 million ETH, marking a 600K ETH increase over the past two days and its highest level since June 7.

XRP retreats as ETF interest cools
Ripple (XRP) slides toward the short-term $1.10 support on Friday, as broader crypto market sentiment weighs on crypto assets. The sell-off mainly stems from fears of inflation in the United States (US) amid the ongoing war in the Middle East and rising Oil prices.
US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?
The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.