Silver breakout looks promising

XAU/USD

• Gold initially dropped from 3365 at the start of July to my 3283/3280 target on Wednesday & then recovered the losses in to the end of the week.
• In the end we closed the week up $20 as we hold a sideways range for 3 months.
• On Friday we wrote: holding above 3330 (which was also yesterday's high) can target 3342/3345 ...However a break above 3348 could be a buy signal targeting 3361/64.
• We reached 3368 on Friday before closing at 3355.
• As you know with no clear trend or pattern it's impossible to try to predict direction, and prices keep reversing after a big move. So I guess it's possible that we try to wipe out some of last week's gains at the beginning of this week.
• I think the key resistance for this week is at 3370/3374. If you want to try a short position use a stop loss above 3380.
• A break higher should be a buy signal targeting 3390/95 & even 3300/3305 is possible for profit taking on long positions.
• However failure to beat 3370/74 sees prices reverse to 3350/3346.
• A move below 3340 suggests further losses towards 3325.

XAG/USD

• Silver break above the June high at 3730/40 was a buy signal & the weekly close above here was confirmation, initially targeting 3775/85.
  Well, what a reaction!! - Silver shot higher to 3853.
• I can only hope that silver is now building upside momentum after several long periods of consolidation.
• From May 2024 to June 2025, silver was trapped in a wide and volatile channel which was very difficult to trade.
• After just 5 days breaking out above the channel in early June, Silver then consolidated for another 5 full weeks in a frustratingly narrow 100 Pip Range.
• Of course its entirely possible that silver just establishes another new range, but I'm trying to be optimistic and hope that this is the beginning of the acceleration of the bull trend.
• A realistic short term target now would be 4120/4140, if you want to try to run a long position and if you're not already in the position you could try buying a break above last week's high at 3853.
• It is difficult to know where to put the stop loss order, but I could suggest below 3820.
• I think it's unlikely that we will revisit the previous high around 3730.
  But if we did see that level this week it should be a good buying opportunity with a stop loss below 3710.