“Sell America” trades reexamined?

Asia market update: SCOTUS IEEPA decision raises global trade uncertainty as traders and nations re-assess - and wait; TECH firms outperform in HK, KR and TW as trade-sensitive sectors gain; JP and CN reaction delayed on holidays ; “Sell America” trades reexamined?

Tariffs part 1: Weekend developments

-US Supreme Court decision to stop the Trump Admin charging tariffs specifically under IEEPA (Economic Emergency Powers Act) has only added to global economic uncertainty, as the Trump Admin in response soon applied Section 122 tariffs to actually increase the minimum base global tariff rate from 10% to the max allowable 15% for 150 days before Congress is required to extend.

- However, there are likely to be legal challenges to Trump’s imposition of Section 122 at 15% as that statute was put in place in the 1970’s to address a potential balance of payments crisis with the end of Bretton Woods and a floating USD - but no such balance of payments crisis exists today.
- In the meantime, even more tariff categories from Section 301, 232, 338, 201 are open for Pres Trump to extend or freshly apply, meaning there is more uncertainty for global - US trade going forward.

- Impact on existing 10% deals: Previously, the UK and Australia had reached trade deals with the U.S. to lock in a 10% rate. White House officials have stated that these countries will now face the global 15% tariff. [However, the new Section 122 tariff proclamation does list specific product exemptions that may benefit these countries, including critical minerals, beef, and energy products].

- On Friday the US stock indices saw decent gains on the SCOTUS decision, but Trump’s raise of the base rate of 10% to 15% on Saturday morning had not yet given the markets a chance to respond, particularly Australia and the UK which to some degree will be directly impacted from their current favorable 10% level, less exemptions.

- USTR rep Greer confirmed the effective China rate drops from 45% to 40% given all the tariff permutations involved, while some analysts see the UK rise from 10-12% to 15%. Greer said he had been having “active conversations” with US trade partners, none have said they will withdraw. Wants to make sure China continues to buy promised products and supply rare earths.

- China may enjoy the largest decline in effective tariff rates, followed by several South and Southeast Asian economies, including Indonesia and Vietnam.

- Speculation out of some trade analysts that the new 15% global tariff could again trigger front-loading activities for Asian shipments. (Assumes Trump may raise overall tariffs again by other methods).

- Tier 1 analysts on Wall St believe that Asia tariff rates likely drop by ~3% overall with the new 15% baseline less than current rates of 19% for countries like Thailand, 20% for Vietnam etc.

TTN Note: All of this uncertainty and messiness may see Trump attempt to drive new '“grand deals” with countries that avoid the need for tariffs at all - using the US economic bully pulpit as leverage now that countries have resigned themselves to paying more to access the US market.

Tariffs part 2: Asia Monday market reaction and developments

- Standard language out of US trading partners thus far such as South Korea and China - no rocking of the boat initially.

- South Korea Industry Minister said Chips are Not subject to Trump's new tariffs.

- Hang Seng outperformed +2.4%; HK trade sensitive names (including tech) initially outperform with autos and CK Hutchison.

- India textiles up as much as ~3% on the effective reduced tariff rate for India (~18% down to 15%).

- Kospi +1.6% at open with Samsung +3%, both seeing fresh record highs yet again, however, Kospi pared a majority of gains as the session progressed.

- Indonesia bourse +1.5%.

- However, no bottom seen as of yet for US equity FUTs, -1.0% during the Asia session, erasing more than the gains initially post-SCOTUS late Friday.

- USD weakness driven by CHF and JPY. Five-day lows vs GBP & Euro. Malaysia Ringgit 8-year high, Philippine Peso highest since Sept, 2025. Commodity currencies Kiwi and Aussie initially higher but pared gains through the session with.

-WTI crude opened -1% on reports of a further US-Iran meeting this Friday and stayed there for the session.

-Bitcoin (~64K) and other coins fell more than -4% after seeing some solidity over the weekend but that disappeared Monday morning as other markets reopened.

Other news

- Pres Trump confirmed to travel to China from Mar 31st to Apr 2nd.

- Oracle [ORCL]: Reportedly Stargate JV set a 10GW goal, but is stalled; Stargate JV between OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank hasn’t staffed up and isn’t building OpenAI’s data centers [Reminder Dec 17th 2025: Oracle’s $10B Michigan data center in limbo after Blue Owl funding talks stall – FT].

- Limited disruptions seen from Northeast (US) blizzard, thus far: nVent Electric [NVT]: Announced that it is postponing its Investor Day, originally scheduled for February 24, 2026, due to a state of emergency declared for the New York metropolitan area ahead of a major winter storm, expected to bring blizzard conditions.

- Spot Silver up another >3%; Silver-streaming deals continue [Lundin Gold], ahead of potential supply deficit of >60M ozs for silver FUTs contracts in March amid continued industrial demand but with many investors choosing to continue to hoard their physical silver rather than make it registered for delivery.

- Austal [Aussie defense firm] crushed: Revised guidance issued due to a forecasting error but H1 still delivered year-on-year improvements; management calls the outlook “fantastic” in both the US and Australia.

- G8 Education [GEM.AU] also tanks: Noted confidence and trust in sector has been impacted by recent events and media coverage.

- Conversely, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare [FPH.NZ] raised guidance. Noted this updated guidance does not incorporate any potential refund of US tariffs paid to date during the 2026 financial year.

- South Korea Feb Exports were strong again in first 20 days of Feb, with Chip exports continuing their outstanding gains +131% y/y.

-US notable companies this week: NVDA Feb 25th after the close, while AI-spend recipient CRWV reports Feb 26th along with, DELL, both after the close. Note Anthropic to also hold an enterprise agent event on Feb 25th, which will be of interest to investors in terms of whether any new announcements may impact further industries (the latest being cyber-security sector after Claude Code released an AI-boosted security tool.

- US equity FUTs -0.8% to -1.0% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using Asian time zone)

- Mon Feb 23rd DE Feb Ifo Business Climate.

- Tue Feb 24th KR Feb Consumer Confidence.

- Wed Feb 25th AU Jan CPI; TH BOT Rate Decision.

- Thu Feb 26th NZ Feb Business Confidence; KR BOK Rate Decision, BOJ Takata speech;

- Fri Feb 27th JP Jan Ind Prod & Retail Sales, IN Q4 GDP, (Fri night Jan US PPI).

Holidays in Asia this week

- Mon Feb 23rd China, Japan.

- Feb 27th Taiwan.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens +0.3% at 9,109.

- New Zealand Q4 Retail Sales Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.6%e.

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng opens +1.5% at 26,598; Shanghai Composite closed for holiday (reopens tomorrow, Tue, Feb 24th).

- China MOFCOM: Making assessment on US SCOTUS tariff ruling - statement.

- (US) Pres Trump to travel to China from Mar 31st to Apr 2nd - White House Official.

- China total population declined again in 2025 to 1.408B from 1.410B - press [weekend update].

- (US) Reportedly US unveils a new platform that seeks to bypass internet censorship in countries like China and Iran - Fox News [weekend update].

Japan

- Nikkei 225 closed for holiday.

- According to former policymaker Sakurai, BOJ may raise rates in Mar if the yen resumes decline – financial pressinda.

- Japan Fin Min Kato: Expect BOJ to make appropriate policy judgment to achieve stable 2% inflation; Specific monetary policy moves are up to the BOJ to decide [late Fri update].

- (RU) Russia Kremlin Daily Briefing: No dialogue on peace deal with Japan, Tokyo is taking hostile position towards Russia [weekend update].

Korea

- Kospi opens +1.6% at 5,903.

- South Korea Feb Exports 1-20 Days Y/Y: 23.5% v 14.9% prior; Imports Y/Y: 11.7% v 4.2% prior; Chip exports +131% y/y.

- South Korea Industry Min Kim: Chips are Not subject to Trump's new tariffs - financial press.

- South Korea Industry Min Kim: Will continue consultations with the US on tariffs, trade agreement - interview comments in Korea.

- South Korea sells KRWT vs. KRW1.5T indicated in 2.5% 5-Year Bonds; Avg Yield: 3.390%; bid-to-cover: x.

Other Asia

- (TH) Thailand Jan Customs Trade Balance: -$3.3B v -$2.0Be.

- (ID) Indonesia officials: Weda Bay production to be capped to 12Mt (megatons) of nickel ore in 2026 (vs 42Mt in 2025).

North America

- US Customs confirms to halt collection of duties under IEEPA at 12:01am EST/ 05:01am GMT on Tue, Feb 24th.

- US ventures' recent fundraising practices for 'blended deals' may 'artificially inflate' valuations - WSJ, citing some investors.

- ORCL Reportedly Stargate JV set a 10GW goal, but stalled; Stargate JV between OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank hasn’t staffed up and isn’t building OpenAI’s data centers - TheInformation.

- USTR Greer: Having active conversations with partners in trade deals, none have said they will withdraw; Don't expect trade situation to affect Trump's meeting with Pres Xi - Fox News interview (Sunday update).

- (US) Trump raises the global tariff to 15% from 10% announced yesterday; Will use the 150 days the temporary tariff is allowed to work on issuing other "legally permissible" tariffs - press [weekend update].

- (US) White House provides details on 10% "temporary import surcharge" and other tariff adjustments, beginning Feb 24, 2026 [late Fri update]

- (US) Supreme Court strikes down Trump's admin IEEPA tariffs (as expected); Vote was 6 to 3 in favor of striking down tariffs; SCOTUS does not address eligibility for tariff refunds [late Fri update].

- (US) Fed's Hammack (voter): Inflation has made amazing progress but is still a problem; Fed can be very patient in considering future rate cuts [weekend update].

Europe

- (IR) Fresh round of US-Iran talks expected Friday if Iran sends nuclear proposal 'soon' - Axios, citing senior US official (update).

- (DE) German Chancellor Merz: Expect tariff burden on German economy to be reduced after US Supreme Court decision [weekend update].

- (EU) Trade Commissioner Sefcovic: EU-China trade imbalance is not sustainable in long-term - comments from Cyprus.

Levels as of 00:20 ET

Nikkei 225 closed; ASX 200 -0.6%; Hang Seng +2.2%; Shanghai Composite closed; Kospi -0.3%.

Equity S&P500 Futures +0.8%; Nasdaq100 -1.0%; DAX -0.7%; FTSE100 -0.3%.

EUR 1.1791-1.1835; JPY 154.00-154.95; AUD 0.7066-0.7113; NZD 0.5975.6003.

Gold +1.0% at $5,156/oz; BTC -4.2%% at $65,155, Crude Oil -1.1% at $65.75/bbl; Copper -0.3% at $5.8803/lb.