Same Old Script....Fed At Jackson Hole On Friday...Market Mover?

The market is getting extremely boring these past many weeks. We broke out over the elusive S&P 500 2134 level on July 11. It took seemingly forever to gain enough energy to make that breakout move. Over a year with the market overall, going nowhere for nearly two full years. One would have thought that once the move over 2134 became a reality the market would have gone parabolic to the up side. It has done anything but that. All the market has done is grind. It is a higher, but not by much. It's six weeks past the breakout date and still no blast higher. You have to take a step back and ask yourself why no blast out after such an important breakout. The answers are numerous. You can start with negative divergences on all the key-index monthly charts. You can move on to six consecutive months of declining earnings. You can then focus on out of control valuations. We can also spend time talking about mostly poor-economic global numbers. The list goes on and on. t's an impressive roll call of problems.

Yet, with all of that, the market doesn't fall simply because of liquidity and low rates, and in many cases, negative rates. Rates are low for all the wrong reasons. Because global economies are weak the global central bankers are working in concert to keep rates low to try and stimulate inflation. It's not working, although Yellen will tell you it is. The only inflation we have is the usual no matter what is happening. Food and health care. So maybe, once we hear from fed Yellen on Friday from Jackson Hole, we can see the market blast higher. Or not. If she turns a bit more hawkish and talks about a rate hike, then maybe the bears will get some love. Maybe! Maybe not, since the bulls never seem to find an excuse to buy these past several years. They can say that it'll only be one rate hike, so no big deal. If she is dovish, then maybe we get a real blast out. Take away all the fears of a possible rate hike or a cycle of rate hikes. It would be nice to see some movement that holds one way or the other. Hopefully, Friday is the day.

The market script really is the same just about every single day. No matter how much the market keeps failing to have strong days once it gaps up, it never follows through the next morning with down side action to start the day. At best maybe a point or two with most days up at the open. It then spends the day, for the most part, trying higher before fading off the highs once the day is over. BORING! The opposing forces discussed above won't allow for much movement either way. If fed Yellen could get more dovish, yet again, it would make sense for the market to finally thrust out. To finally get the market to put distance away from S&P 500 2134. The bears have been fighting more of late as they're working to prevent a real move to the up side.

It's really, as usual, all about the fed. Whatever she does will be how the market responds. It will ignore the real world and play within the world of make believe as long as she says all the right things. Will she? Not 100% sure this time, since she seems to be sending fed Governor's out quite a bit these days with the warning of an impending rate hike, but maybe they're doing it on their own, and in their own way, trying to convince Yellen to get with it. She is getting more Governor's dissenting on her decisions to keep rates this low. Some of the other Governor's want a hike, but she's fighting them. Bottom line is we are in an extremely boring environment. It needs to die peacefully. Hopefully the script can change this Friday.