Russia: Upside pressures on the currency

Yann Quelenn Swissquote Bank Ltd

In an effort to stabilize the ruble, Russia is looking to expand its Foreign-Exchange reserves (including Gold). Today, Russia will disclose this amount for the period ending 26 of May. Russia’s Central Bank has already made clear that one of its primary objectives is to increase those reserve holdings up to $500 billion as stated by Elvira Nabiullina, head of the central bank.

The reserves currently amount to $405 billion. By the way, Russian gold reserves could officially be above China gold reserves by year end. Regarding the state of the Russian economy, Nabiullina said the economy has been resilient regarding international sanctions. As a result she hinted that interest rates may go even lower. The key rate is standing at 9%.

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Data-wise, inflation is collapsing, the last release printed at 4%. We recall that it was at an astonishing 16+% two years ago and the consumer prices growth is now standing at 4%. The unemployment rate is also on its way down and is now reaching 5.2%. However, real disposable income should continue its decline in May after the strong decline in April of -7.6%. We reload our RUB short position against the dollar for some more time and we target 57 ruble for one dollar in the short-term.

Author

Yann Quelenn

Swissquote Bank Ltd

Yann Quelenn is a Market Analyst at Swissquote Bank with strong technical and financial background. Previously, he worked as FX Trader at Banque Privée Edmond de Rothschild and as Portfolio Manager at Polaris Investment in Luxembourg.

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