Risk on returns

Frank Walbaum

Important news for the day

Thu, 22nd, 01:30 CET AU Employment change.
Thu, 22nd, 14:30 CET US Gross domestic product.
Thu, 22nd, 16:00 CET US Core PCE price index.

Non tariffs?

US President Trump seemingly stepped backwards by not adding new tariffs. During the his speech in Davos he pointed out that only the US would be able to protect Greenland, which is mainly made of ice. Europe would be hence well supported in securing their borders by the US. Force would not be needed according to him as he tries to purchase the country. Furthermore NATO as a whole would not be threatened, too. is statements caused equity markets to run higher. The positive risk sentiment returned and not only stocks went up but also the crypto market has moved to the upside.

Market talk

The weakness of the Dollar has somewhat stopped with most currency pairs having stopped to rise. The AUD, on the other hand, keeps pushing higher as the risk aversion is seemingly fading. Gold and Silver prices also continue to push higher with in particular Silver potentially ready to break the current technical resistance zone. As the risk sentiment currently changes also oil prices start to push to the upside again as well as the Loonie. Currency pairs like the USDCAD and EURCAD keep moving lower and the trend might continue. Tomorrow, traders should focus on the JPY. The BoJ interest rate decision might move the Yen.

Tendencies in the markets

Equities positive, USD sideways/ stronger, crypto positive, oil sideways, Silver positive, Gold strong.

Author

Frank Walbaum

AUD/USD seems vulnerable near 0.6800, 10-month low amid bullish USD

AUD/USD languishes near a 10-month low during the Asian session on Friday, awaiting a break below 0.6800 before the next leg up amid a bullish US Dollar. Firming Fed rate-hike expectations, along with fading hopes for US-Iran diplomacy, help the USD hold gains at its highest level since April 2025. Moreover, the RBA’s dovish tilt undermines the Aussie and backs the case for further losses.

USD/JPY bulls turn cautious near 160.00 amid intervention risks

USD/JPY enters a bullish consolidation phase around its highest level since early September as bulls turn cautious amid intervention risk near 160.00. Meanwhile, the downside seems cushioned as the wide US-Japan interest rate gap keeps the Yen carry trade active. Furthermore, the possibility of a jumbo Fed rate hike and Middle East uncertainties hold the US Dollar near a 19-month top, supporting the currency pair.

Gold remains on the back foot below $3,900

Gold now alternates gains with losses below the $3,900 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal struggles to regain traction amid the firmer US Dollar, mixed US Treasury yields and expectations of further tightening by the Fed at its December meeting.

Bitcoin just posted five straight losing weeks, and the storm may not be over yet

Bitcoin is struggling to find support, slipping below $70,000 as multiple headwinds threaten to push the Crypto King lower. The much-anticipated “Uptober” rally failed to materialize, with persistent selling pressure and widespread liquidations instead reinforcing the “Rektober” narrative.

Week ahead – Fed Minutes, inflation data and Nvidia earnings to guide investors

Fed minutes may add to hawkish tone as bets of 50-bps hike grow. Nvidia to report earnings as bar to impress high after spy scandal. Trade and geopolitics to be focal point of Trump-Xi summit.

Gold hit its lowest level of 2026 near $3,850

Gold (XAU/USD) attempts to stabilize around $3,890 on Friday after falling to $3,852 on Thursday, its lowest level since October 2025. The precious metal has lost more than 4% this week, as investors increasingly anticipate further monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The latest decline reflects a sharp change in market expectations.