Climate change has continued to be a big topic in the news, especially with record temperatures again this summer. Are humans the primary cause?

When this first became a major issue many years ago, I initially was more skeptical of the human impact. I had studied long-term climate cycles and saw how much they’ve varied simply from natural trends. Were we big enough to impact substantially?

The first wake-up call I got was when I looked back at the key very predictable longer-term cycles. Every one of them, from very long to shorter, were pointing towards moderate cooling. Even the shorter-term sunspot cycles keep coming in lower intensity since 1959 – and more so since 1990, which has a cooling effect – and temperatures keep rising anyway!

That’s when I realized that we must be driving that rising CO2 trend and its correlation with temperature that has held throughout history.

Global Urbanization The Biggest Driver

In my most macro analysis of all the global trends, the biggest is simply accelerated urbanization since 1920. Developed countries urbanized fully since the mid-1800s, but emerging countries are only starting to in the past several decades – and who are the big polluters now? China, and increasingly India.

Look at this chart. It shows a correlation between urbanization and CO2 on a 40-50-year lag. Here, 50 is used.

Urbanization roughly triples GDP per capita, and then people use a lot more energy.

But why the lag? The scariest part about CO2 (and methane) emissions in the atmosphere is that they are cumulative. They last a long time and build upon each other like compound interest. Hence, a 40-50-year lag makes total sense to me.

That means that even when global urbanization is predicted to slow down again near 80% urban around 2110, the damage to the atmosphere and warming will continue for another 40-50 years… Damn!

I know this is a politically sensitive topic that divides largely on partisan lines. But my forecasting techniques do not – except in shorter-term scenarios.

I came into this issue a sceptic… I am not now. This is a serious issue and will become more so… another reason I’m glad I’m in mountainous Puerto Rico rather than flat Florida.

We’re lucky that the sunspot trends are working in our favor and will likely continue to do so for at least the next 10 years.

The content of our articles is based on what we’ve learned as financial journalists. We do not offer personalized investment advice: you should not base investment decisions solely on what you read here. It’s your money and your responsibility. Our track record is based on hypothetical results and may not reflect the same results as actual trades. Likewise, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Certain investments such as futures, options, and currency trading carry large potential rewards but also large potential risk. Don’t trade in these markets with money you can’t afford to lose. Delray Publishing LLC expressly forbids its writers from having a financial interest in their own securities or commodities recommendations to readers.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD retreats, holds on to modest intraday gains

Having spent the day within familiar levels, the EUR/USD pair is once again retreating from the 1.1070/80 resistance area. Dollar in better shape against most major rivals after post-Fed’s correction.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD above 1.2500 as Juncker says there could be a deal by October 31

EU’s Juncker said that if the objectives of the backstop are met through alternative arrangements, the backstop won´t be needed, adding that there could be a deal by the October deadline. GBP/USD hits fresh 7-week highs in the 1.2530 region.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY stays in negative territory near 108 despite rising US stocks

The USD/JPY pair rose to its highest level since early August at 108.48 during the American trading hours on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve refrained from giving any hints regarding the next policy move despite announcing a 25 basis points rate cut.

USD/JPY News

The Federal Reserve Keeps its Options Open

The Federal Reserve’s two rate cuts in as many months have satisfied market expectations for action and will give the governors time to determine if a full reduction cycle is warranted.

Read more

Gold consolidating at technical levels awaiting next catalyst

Precious metals were higher on Thursday. Gold prices climbed from $1,489.13 to $1,504.60. The gold ratio travelled between 83.87 and 84.66 with a bullish bias as the yellow metal surges on. 

Gold News

Forex Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures