Returning to the underlying weak trend

Good Day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, December is slipping away very quickly as far as I'm concerned... It's already ½ over! I have an announcement in the wrap up this morning, so don't miss it! It got really cold over the weekend here... But warmer weather is on the way... Our Blues beat the Blackhawks on Friday night... This used to be a BIG Rivalry... I was really spacing out last week, as I said that the college Playoffs started last Friday... I was rushing it a bit, eh? The playoffs start this Friday! DOH! Dire Straits greets me this morning with their song: Brothers In Arms... 

Well, the dollar sat on its duff on Friday and didn't move... It traded in a very tight range and remained at the 1,206 figure in the BBDXY to end the week... The dollar lost 8 index points for the week, last. So, a return to the underlying weak trend was its destination and it is entrenched now... The euro was trading above the 1.17 figure to end the week, and the rest of the currencies are looking heathier...

Debase your currency and see that holders of the currency don't like it... I just don't get the rate cuts... They do nothing to help the labor problem, and there was no reason to cut them 3 times on top of that! Inflation is still a problem, and with money supply growing like a weed, inflation is only going to get worse... but, then that's just me talking... 

The metals saw major SPT action on Friday... Even with the selling by the short paper traders Gold ended the week near $4,300 and Silver was up 6.2%... Silver saw the brunt of the short selling and it lost $1.63 on the day to end the week at $61.99...

Just the previous day, sllver traded as high as $64...  Gold was $4,351 when the SPTs showed up with arms full of short paper trades...  I say that this was the SPTs late attempt to swing for the fences one more time... The physical demand for these metals is too strong right now, and that really hurts the SPTs... 

The price of Oil had slipped to a $57 handle on Thursday and remained there to end the week... And the 10-year Treasury saw some give and take from its yield all last week, but ended the week trading with a $4.18% yield... 

In the overnight markets last night... Before I went to bed last night, I checked to see what the metals were doing after Friday's takedown by the SPTs... And Gold was already up $27 and Silver 65-cents... the dollar had added an index point to trade last night at 1,207... 

So, those early gains in the metals were early signs of a good rally, as Gold is up $47 to start our day/ week, and Silver didn't waste any time waiting to regain its momentum as it is up $1.93 to start our day/ week.  

The dollar returned to getting sold and starts our day/ week with the BBDXY at 1.205, down 1 index point from Friday's close. The dollar's brief run higher didn't last too long, as it returned the underlying weak trend in no time... Why did the dollar run up higher? It had to be intervention, otherwise the rally would have lasted longer... I'm just saying...

Silver is outperforming Gold once again, and that is something that has occurred many times in the past... During the metals run up in the 2000's Silver outperformed Gold in 10 of the 11 years, so we're back to normal in the metals... 

The price of Oil remained trading with a $57 handle overnight... I'm still surprised that the price of Oil has remained so low... There's a lot going on with saber rattling over Oil and I can't believe it's not reacting accordingly... But, sera sera...  

The 10-year Treasury's yield saw some slippage overnight, and so the yield on the bond starts our day/ week at 4.16%... 

Well, I have to get this off my chest... I think something's rotten in Denmark... Something smells of yesterday's fish... And any of the other sayings that say, "Something's going on, and we're about to find out what"...

I'm talking about the other comment that Jerome Powell made after announcing the rate cut last week... He told the NY Fed to begin purchasing T-Bills and bonds up to 3 years...  

I've mentioned in previous Pfennigs that the Fed Heads had been manipulating the yield on the 10-year Treasury to keep it from going too high, but this is different... This is Quantitative Easing / QE... monetizing the debt... and other things that come to mind... Like dirty dastardly low-ball tricks to hide something... 

Could it be... that the Fed Heads are worried that Central Banks around the world are stepping away from Treasuries for Gold, and it will soon affect the auctions? Or it could be that by buying Treasuries, the Fed Heads are simply doing the buying that no one else is doing to drive the price of the bonds higher and the yields lower? The bond boys won't lower the yields, so, the Fed Heads had to take it on themselves...  

Either way, I don't like it... It's QE no matter what stick you shake at it.. And I thought there was an agreement that there would be no more QE? I guess that was just a suggestion, and not an order... 

So, he had 3 dissenting voters in the FOMC to a 25 Basis Point rate cut, the most dissenters that I believe I've ever heard of, and went ahead and cut rates... then he announces QE... Something strange is going on and we'll find out sooner or later what that is, but that "unknown" is what I think lit the fuse under Gold & Silver last Thursday... Something BAD is about to be discovered as going on, and then Katy Bar The door! Because Gold & Silver are heading to Infinity and Beyond! In my best Buzz Lightyear voice... 

If Thursday's price action in Gold & Silver is any indication of what's in store for these two, then we had better tighten our bootstraps... I'm just saying! 

I've told you before about be acquainted with Brien Lundin of the New Orleans Investment Conference, and author of the newsletter: The Gold Newsletter... Well, he had this to say about what I'm talking about here: "Gold, as I mentioned, has been coiling in what looks like an impending break out. Still, I agree that something is definitely up in the silver (and gold) markets. While there are severe supply constraints, particularly loco London after the tariff scare of earlier this year, there are other, deeper-seated issues remaining after years of manipulation in these markets. " Brien Lundin... 

Chuck again... And then there I was, being just happy as a lark, when I read Ed Steer's letter on Saturday... In it, he included an article that talked about The European Union's decision to take the frozen assets that they took from Russia, and "unfreeze them" by putting them in a package of loans to Ukraine... This has all the makings of what David Rogers was telling us in this great book: The Great Taking... 

I recommended this book when it came out, because it painted a picture of how the powers that be will take everything from us... there will be a summit in Brussels this week to discuss this... I can't believe this has come to this... This plan for 185 Billion euros, or $217 Billion dollars worth of euros will be voted on... this is crazy folks! This opens Pandora's Box of evil things that will be bestowed upon us! Ed Steer had his thoughts on this let's listen in: "Because of that, I'm wondering if yesterday's bear raid in the precious metals was one last swing for the fences before everything comes unglued in Europe.

As Gandalf the White said..."Things are now in motion that cannot be undone."

All we can do is watch, wait -- and hope that we're not collateral damage if things really do go totally nonlinear over there...because any problems that develop over there, will spread like wildfire across globe in very short order."

Chuck again.. Full of seashells and balloons this morning, (NOT!) Why can't we just all get along? Questions for someone with far greater gray matter than I! 

I could have put that last piece in the FWIW section today, but it was important and I wanted people to read it, and I fear that the FWIW articles get skimmed over all the time by most readers, so there's that... 

The U.S. Data Cupboard is basically empty today, but tomorrow's Cupboard has the Jobs Jamboree from November, which I fear is going to show real rot on labor's vine,,, and prove my call that the rate cuts won't help the labor picture.. But the Fed Heads continue to cut rates anyway...  We'll also see the Rocktober Retail Sales which the BHI indicates to me was rotten... If I remember correctly, that is.. 

And I found this on Twitter: "The average U.S. credit card balance has climbed to about 6.5k per person, with total balances pushing well past 1.2 trillion dollars and setting new records. High-cost revolving debt is no longer just a temporary bridge; for millions it has quietly become a way of life."

Chuck again... and to think that most of these credit cards charge 20% interest... So, how will those balances ever be paid off? Win the lottery?

To recap... The SPT's really made Silver's Friday a tough row to hoe... Gold also saw some short selling knocking it back $53 from its high for the day... Silver lost $1.63 on the day, but to me this is fine, let them have one more swing for the fences, because the demand is so strong for physical Silver that it should recover the loss on Friday and then some, quickly... The dollar didn't move on iota on Friday, and remained trading at 1,206 in the BBDXY... 

Here's your snippet: "So far this year, gold has hit nearly 50 all-time highs as it trades around $4,300 ahead of the weekend. The yellow metal is up more than 65% so far this year and is seeing its best annual gains since 1979.

Of course, gold’s gains pale in comparison to silver. Although the grey metal is off its highs above $64.66 an ounce, it is up more than 6% this week and trading at record highs: silver prices are up 115%!

Given the gains the precious metals have made this year, it’s not surprising that some analysts are trying to talk down the momentum. The Bank for International Settlements attracted a lot of attention this week after publishing a report stating that both gold and equities are in bubble territory.

That may be true, but according to one analyst, even if the gold market is a bubble, it doesn’t mean it will pop next year. A new theme growing in the precious metals sector is that both gold and silver may be overpriced but under-owned.

It’s hard to see the scenario that would pop the precious metals bubble. Are interest rates going to go higher next year? Will globalization trends reemerge? Will government spending be reined in?"

Chuck again... the answer to those questions is a resounding NO! And so I hang my hat on the thought that when U.S. investors flock to Gold & Silver then we may be near the end of the run, but until then... Carry on my wayward son... (Kansas)

Market Prices 12/15/2025: American Style: A$ .6552, kiwi .5792, C$ .7265, euro 1.1753, sterling 1.3390, Swiss $1.2567, European Style: rand 16.7839, krone 10.1371. SEK 9.2848, forint 327.74, zloty 3.5914, koruna 20.6668, RUB 79.15, yen 155.00, sing 1.2819, HKD 7.7822, INR 90.73, China 7.0470, peso 17.98, BRL 5.4050, BBDXY 1,205, Dollar Index 98.25, Oil $57.13, 10-year 4.16%, Silver $63.92, Platinum $ 1,775.00, Palladium $ 1.549.00, Copper $5.42, and Gold... $4,346.

That's it for today... Now pay attention, because this is important... It's that time of year again when Chuck takes his annual Christmas Vacation... It all begins on Thursday this week as I will be getting my monthly infusion, and what better day to start a vacation? I will return on 12/29/25... So, mark your calendars accordingly.. Today is my younger sister's birthday... Happy Birthday Terri! Terri lives in Houston, TX with my other younger sister, Joanie...Terri came to see me last April, it was one of the few times we get together... Look for my usual traditional Christmas Pfennig around 12/24... War greets me this morning with their song: Low Rider... I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!