Research COVID-19: Closer to the peak of bad news

Allan von Mehren Danske Bank A/S

On the following pages, we look at when we can expect to see a peak in the new case s of COVID-19 across Europe and the US and as such the peak in the bad news regarding COVID-19. There is a lot of uncertainty about these projections and we are not virologists, but based on the experience in China, South Korea and indications from Italy, we aim to make a qualified guess.

Based on the experience of these countries we look for the following.

Italy. A peak in new cases is becoming clearer this week and we look for a peak in active cases around mid-April (active cases are the number of people currently infected, hence the difference between total accumulated infections and how many have recovered or died).
Germany and France. We look for new infections to peak late this week or early next week and active cases top out during the second half of April.
US. We think a peak in new cases could be reached by the end of next week and active cases peak in the last week of April.

We already see signs that Italy has topped out when it comes to the number of new cases. Both infections and deaths show a clear decline in growth rates.

As the peak becomes evident in more countries, we may approach the peak in 'bad news' regarding COVID-19, although the total numbers will still rise for some time.

We look for lockdowns to be gradually lifted during the second half of April and early May in both the US and Europe.

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Author

Allan von Mehren

Danske Bank A/S

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