Recession indicator turns on - further slowdown ahead

Danske Research Team Danske Bank A/S

Market movers ahead

In the US, we expect manufacturing PMI to tick below 50. On the Fed, we will look out for the FOMC minutes and the Jackson Hole Conference.

In the euro area, the fragile manufacturing sector is not about to recover. We expect a further plunge in PMIs here. We will also watch the ECB minutes.

In Sweden, we will look out for the unemployment figures. We expect a sharp but probably temporary drop-back in unemployment.

In Norway, we expect the Q3 investment survey to confirm that oil investments will continue to boost the economy.

Weekly wrap-up

The US 10-year government bond yield fell below the two-year yield, leading to the first inversion of the yield curve in 12 years.

The US delayed the planned tariff increase on China from 1 September to 15 December, done mainly so as not to hurt Christmas sales.

Economic data was mixed this week. The German ZEW survey fell to the lowest level since 2011. On the other hand, US retail sales surprised on the upside.

Hong Kong protests escalated this week. Further escalation could trigger Beijing intervention, which could add to current market woes.

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Danske Research Team

Danske Bank A/S

Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.

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