Rather calm after another French government collapse [Video]

Ipek Ozkardeskaya Swissquote Bank Ltd

France’s government just collapsed after a no-confidence vote — but markets barely blinked. European markets are under some pressure this morning but the euro is holding its ground. Why are investors so calm while French politics descend into gridlock? Have the risks already been priced in, or is a sudden shock still waiting around the corner, just like the UK’s mini-budget meltdown back in 2022? Time will tell.

Meanwhile in the US, weak jobs data fuel bets on aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts — maybe even 50bp in September. Stocks hover near record highs, the dollar eases and JPMorgan warns of a looming “sell the news” reaction. Gold keeps surging on central bank demand and the rally is further backed by falling US yields and a softer US dollar, with Goldman Sachs hinting at a path to $5,000 an ounce if investors decided to convert their UST to gold. Crude oil, too, defies OPEC’s supply pledges, supported by shale breakevens and a softer dollar.

Author

Ipek Ozkardeskaya

Swissquote Bank Ltd

Ipek Ozkardeskaya began her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked in HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high-net-worth clients.

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.